Q1 preliminary GDP figures due from Japan today

  • GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q1, preliminary, q/q: expected 0.4%, prior 0.4% also
  • GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted), preliminary y/y: expected 1.6%, prior 1.5%
  • GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted), preliminary q/q: expected 1.5%, prior 1.0%
  • GDP Deflator y/y, preliminary: expected 3.6%, prior 2.4%
  • GDP Private Consumption q/q, preliminary, expected is +0.2% and prior was +0.5%
  • GDP Business Spending q/q, preliminary: expected 0.6%, prior was -0.1%

Consumer spending will be a focus in this data set. Private consumption slumped after the sales tax hike and is slowly, slowly recovering. Any acceleration here will be welcome.

Business capex also. It has fallen, any bounce back will also be a positive for the BOJ and Japanese administration.

As for USD/JPY ... its not really where the action is, and the moves we are getting are driven predominantly of late by USD factors. Any improvement in business capex and/or consumer spending may be a yen positive, but I don't expect too much in the ay of swings in this data.