Economists see the ECB normalising policy in Q3 2020

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Bloomberg's latest poll on economists and financial institutions show

ECB survey
ForexLive
That's unchanged from the March survey but the fact that any hike in the ECB's deposit facility - currently -0.40% - is only seen around Q3 2020 highlights the fact that markets aren't at all considering the central bank to change their current stance any time soon.

In last month's meeting, the ECB revised its forward guidance to state that they will keep rates at present levels throughout 2019. That said, any rate hikes next year isn't a given with inflationary pressures and economic growth struggling at the moment.

Another gauge of market pricing of an ECB rate hike is the long-term inflation expectations in the Eurozone. That currently sits at 1.37% and is hovering at its lowest levels since 2016 after a dramatic falloff since last year:

EZ 5y inflation
In short, this all says that it is going to take a lot to convince markets of a change in the ECB rhetoric. And if economic data continues to show little signs of improvement, expect the forward guidance to be pushed back further in the latter stages of this year.

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