-EEF: UK Q4 Manufacturing output balance zero past 3m; 4 next 3m
LONDON (MNI) – Manufacturing output has been running flat but may
expand a little going into the first quarter, an EEF survey shows.
Analysts have warned that manufacturing may not make a positive
contribution to Q4 growth and the Q4 EEF survey shows a string of
balances close to, or a little above, zero.
The Q4 output balance for the past three months was zero, rising
to 4 for the next three months, while the total orders balance for the
past three months was 3, falling to 1 for the next three months.
The past three months output balance was down from 4% in the
Q3 survey and 20 in Q2 2012.
The EEF survey shows manufacturing employment flatlining, with
employment balances of zero for the past three months and 1 for the next
three months.
Recent quarterly official data have been distorted by one-off
effects, such as the Jubilee bank holiday which depressed Q2 growth and
supported a sharp rebound in Q3, with manufacturing posting 0.9%
quarterly growth in Q3. The EEF survey, which captures underlying
activity, paints a picture of a sector that faded as the year went on
and is now close to flatlining.
The EEF survey highlights the deterioration of export markets,
with export orders turning negative for the first time since q4 2009,
dropping to -8 in Q4 from 2 in Q3.
“Output across the year as a whole will most likely be lower than
in 2011. And for industry at least, our latest survey shows that weaker
output and order intake continued right to the end of the year,” EEF
Chief Economist Lee Hopley said.
The survey was conducted between 31 October and 21 November.
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[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
