EIA data and commentary highlight production glut
The US Energy Information Administration is out with some bearish commentary on oil.
- Raises 2015 US crude output forecast by 2.6% to 9.43m barrels per day
- Lowers 2016 price forecasts for WTI and Brent by about $3.50
- Raises 2015 WTI forecast to $55.35 from $54.32
- Says oil output more resilient to lower prices than expected
- Oil output to drop in June through early 2016
- US output to rebound in H2 2016 as new projects begin
- 2015 oil price high enough to support shale drilling
- Sees 2015 non-OPEC supply at 58.16m bpd vs 57.56 in May
This is about as bearish as it gets and it highlights why the medium-term picture for oil is so negative. I just don't see how prices can hold at these levels.
