I’m taking three pieces of information into account:

  1. EUR/USD market caught short and real money players may now also need to cover along with leveraged players (according to overnight interbank reports)
  2. Technician friend tells me that AUD/USD is heavily overbought on short-term charts and should revert towards .9900 again
  3. EUR/USD is very close to major technical support.

I’ve taken a long position at 1.2955 and will exit if we get a clear break below 1.2900.