EUR showing signs of life again, as CHF gets left behind the pack
Earlier in the month, the pair hit a high of 1.1723 - the highest level since the SNB removed the 1.2000 floor back in January 2015.
I had this up earlier in the day as the pair made a move towards the 1.1700 level this morning.
This is a pair I've been quite fond of to trade this year. With politics dominating the US and UK scene, it's been a challenge to find another pair which has a simple conviction trade kind of feeling so far this year.
The economic backdrop of the EU has improved somewhat in 2017, and with the ECB taking steps to tighten its monetary policy again it's clear there is a somewhat divergence between the two - since the SNB is still focusing on the overvalued CHF.
The pair has jumped almost 1,000 pips this year. No, it hasn't been straightforward and like any move there's always going to be retracements and profit taking. But one thing I like about the pair is that the picture is not clouded with overly uncertain elements.
Keep things simple.
Yes, the SNB poses a threat with intervention and that could distort market movement. But relative to Donald Trump's ability to move markets, this is very mild indeed.
The pair is reminiscent to that of USD/CAD in the second half of 2015. The run up as oil prices started slumping and the Bank of Canada taking up easing measures was quite a jump. US-Canada policy divergence. Canadian economy needing to diversify away from oil as it was weighing on the economy. Again, it was simple and let it stay that way.
Pick your levels right and you've got a good trade lined up in front of you.
Of course, I wouldn't advise you to get in on the action now at the highs. But in an event of a pullback or a series of pullbacks, as long as the same conviction holds and you manage your risk right, the pair is one which can be quite profitable despite the lower liquidity/volatility compared to other major pairs.
How about you guys? What's been your favourite pair to trade so far this year?