The EURJPY has made new lows today. The last time the price was this low was in November 2000. The low for the move today reached 95.365. This took at the most recent low from last month at 95.55 (was a spike low on June 1 2012 and was quickly reversed). . The low in 2000 extended all the way to 88.88 (October 2000).
Looking at the hourly chart, the price is also below resistance/support line at the 95.86 area (Red channel line) and is currently testing a flatter channel support at the 95.52 level (see blue channel support line in the chart below). As long as the price is able to remain below these lines, the bears remain in firm control in this pair.
What may give sellers cause for pause is the last dip has moved to the 95.46 (see 5 minute chart below) -above the low extreme for the day. The topside trend line on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 95.68 level now. The 38.2% of the move down from the most recent high comes in at 95.79, the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) comes in at 95.84 currently and coming down. Traders – on a Friday – may use these levels to dictate “do I stay” with the trend over the weekend or “do I exit”. Watch the 95.46 level for clues for a potential Friday PM selloff. If it moves below, the lows may be under assault again.
Of note for the bears is the ability to hold the 100 hour MA over the last few days. Not being able to extend above this MA gave the bears a strong reason to sell and also increases the importance of the MA line going forward.
