February 'flash' PMIs due from the euro area through Thursday
A couple of previews.
RBC:
- The ECB signalling at its last meeting that it was in data watching mode in the run-up to its next meeting on March 7th as it tries to assess the nature of the euro area downturn, in particular, how long it is set to last. The February flash 'PMIs', therefore, represent one of the more significant data points ahead of that next gathering.
- The key question that the PMIs will be asked to answer is if the country and sector specific problems that President Draghi referenced again at the January meeting are beginning to recede or if they are set to prolong the slowdown. Thus far there is little to suggest that the difficulties affecting the manufacturing sector are set to lift but there may be better news in services, in particular from France where the worst of the disruption caused by the 'yellow vest' protests may be easing, and which should boost the overall euro area reading.
ING:
- The Eurozone PMI will be among the most closely watched figures next week. The r-word has been used out loud already as the January PMI dropped to just 51 (anything below 50 signals contracting activity). The February PMI will give a sense of if we're going to see a turnaround in growth figures, or whether we will move even closer to stagnation halfway through the first quarter.
Macquarie:
- This month's provisional PMIs will again be closely watched, especially in the Eurozone where growth has been particularly weak of late. Following sharp declines over the past year, the consensus expectation is for a stabilisation in the Eurozone PMIs, although hopes for a quick recovery remain slim
