A rising tide lifts all boats and during the first decade of the euro boats like Ireland and Spain were propelled to levels never imagined as low Germanic interest rates fueled booms in economies that by all rights should have had much higher interest rates. People were willing to overlook the disconnect between monetary policy and economic growth as long as the economy was booming. Now that things have turned to bust, rates are too high and these economies no longer have the flexibility that a local currency would have given them to absorb economic shocks. All they can do is grin and bear it, but the grin is quickly fading.
Some in the macro community are beginning to buy lottery tickets that the present crisis could expose the flaws in the euro experiment to the point where it unravels. Deep out-of-the money EUR puts are the way to play, it would appear. With volatility high, this is not a low-cost strategy, alas. If you’re looking for a place to park a small punt, that might be a trade to consider though.
