Activity picking up in Europe trumps drop in German ZEW survey
The trade numbers make for some interesting reading. Exports from the 19 member Eurozone grew 11.0% y/y following a 4.0% gain last month. Imports also increased 7.0% y/y from flat in Feb.
For the whole of Europe the surplus rose to €10.7bn vs €3.4bn prior. Exports gained 14.0% y/y from 2.0% in Feb and imports were up 9.0% vs 3.0% prior
It's another sign that activity is picking up in Europe and that makes the comments from Coeure and Noyer even more out of sync with the current fundamentals. It doesn't mean QE can end tomorrow but the economy is moving and moving in the right direction.
Inflation is at least holding for now and though the price pressures you would hope to see with a recovery are someway behind, they will start building, so there's a good chance of seeing a bottom developing in inflation
EURUSD waltzed through 1.1200 but has found sellers just ahead of 1.1220. At the moment the 1.1200 level looks like it could be pivotal for our next direction hold below and that keeps the pressure on the downside. Get and hold above and the move down from 1.13 could start to retrace
EURUSD 15m chart
As mentioned, 1.1220 is first resistance then we're likely to see more at the usual suspects of 1.1245/50, 1.1275/80 then 1.1295/1300.
1.1170 I support ahead of the low at 1.1160
