- German prelim Q-1 GDP -3.8% q/q, -6.7% y/y, worse than expected vs median forecasts of -3.0%, -6.0% respectively
- French Q-1 GDP -1.2% q/q, pretty much in line with median forecast of -1.3%. Third and fourth quarters of 2008 revised down. Q-3 to -0.2% from +0.1%, Q-4 to -1.5% from -1.1
- French Economy Minister: French 2009 GDP seen contracting 3.0%
- Swiss March retail sales 1.2% y/y
- Dutch Q-1 GDP -2.8% q/q, -4.5% y/y
- Italian Q-1 GDP -2.4% q/q, -5.9% y/y, worse than expected vs median forecasts of -1.8%, -5.0% respectively
- Euro zone April inflation confirmed at 0.4% m/m, +0.6% y/y
- Euro zone Q-1 GDP -2.5% q/q, -4.6% y/y, weaker than expected vs median forecasts of -2.0%, -4.1% respectively
- German Govt spokesman: Says German Q-1 GDP contraction unlikely to be repeated
Weak European GDP data (see above) has served to undermine risk sentiment with euro, and to a slightly lesser extent sterling, suffering.
EUR/USD is presently down at 1.3550 from an early 1.3630. Reports of BIS buying in 1.3540/50 area lending tenuous support.
Japanese yen has seen good across the board strength against the backdrop of increased risk aversion. USD/JPY is down at 94.95 from an early 95.90, while EUR/JPY is down at 128.70 from around 130.80.
While heightened risk aversion and poor technicals for USD/JPY played a part in the move, sources also report another trigger. The start of the move coincided with news hitting the wires that Panasonic are forecasting/assuming a USD/JPY rate of 93 for 2009/10 and 118 for EUR/JPY. Just the excuse needed.
Sources report that there was heavy real money/system selling of USD/JPY, while a Dutch asset manager was seen selling the yen crosses aggressively.
