• Moody’s changes China’s ratings outlook to positive from stable
  • S.Korean authorities seen buying dollars below 1,160 won – Traders
  • German September trade surplus s.a 9.9 bln euros vs 10.6 bln in August, below median forecast of 11.5 bln. Exports s.a. +3.8% m/m, imports +5.8% m/m
  • Shanghai share index ends up 0.4%
  • Russia cbank shifts intervention level to 35.25 rbls/basket from 35.30 and later a second time to 35.20 – Traders
  • Dollar to remain key reserve currency; others to gain prominance over longer-term . Premature for Asian central banks to exit easy monetary policies – Asian Development Bk official
  • Bank of France October survey sees Q4 GDP +0.5% (first estimate). Business sentiment index at 95 in October from 93 in September
  • Euro zone sentix investor confidence -7.0 in November, up from -12.6 in October, highest read since June 2008, and some way above median forecast of -10.9
  • German September industrial production +2.7% m/m, much stronger than median forecast of +1.4%. August revised up, to +1.8* from original +1.7%

The dollar is weaker across the board this morning. The G20 did nothing to support the currency, while the IMF feels record low U.S. interest rates are funding global “carry trades” and that the greenback is still over-valued as concerns mount that new financial imbalances are forming.

Moody’s meanwhile changed China’s ratings outlook to “positive” from “stable,” citing the governments success in steering the nation through the global financial crisis. This helped bolster further already heightened risk appetite, which didn’t help the dollar.

European stocks up, FTSE 100 just over 1.5%, DAX 30 just over 1.75%. Oil is up about 1.25 bucks.

EUR/USD started around 1.4935 and slowly ticked higher but ran into sell orders protecting 1.4950 option interest. However, as is usually the case, this proved to be only a temporary problem for the euro bulls.

The rally accelerated once 1.4950 was overcome before running into well-touted sell interest at 1.4980 up through 1.5000. This put the pairing on the defensive for awhile. That’s until the release of much stronger than expected German investor confidence data (see above), plus some decent buying from an ACB, helped the pairing to a 1.5011 session high before settling back a little. We’re presently at 1.4990.

Cable rallied early with the USD struggling. It went from an early 1.6730 all the way to 1.6800 without much of a stutter, where it ran into BIS sell interest which put it on the back foot for a little while.

But it was only a temporary setback and we were soon rallying again and when the BIS failed to turn up again around 1.6800, stops were triggered just above and again on move through 1.6820 on the way to a 1.6843 session high. Profit taking has set in and we’ve drifted back to 1.6810 at writing.

USD/JPY is lower, down at 89.85 from an early 90.15. Small stops triggered on move through 90.00. Talk of buy orders now down at 89.70 through 89.40. Sell orders seen at 90.30 up through 90.50. Stops above 90.50.