SocGen on the German political uncertainty
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of the recent political developments in Germany.
"There are... four plausible outcomes in Germany. The first is that the Jamaica coalition is revived, which seems unlikely. The second is that the CDU/SPD coalition is revived but that seemed to be what the electorate were unhappy with at the election. The other two, fresh elections or the CDU ruling as a minority government, are untried in the modern era.
As for the FX conclusion, the EUR/USD 1.1480-1.1880 range is holding. If we can get positioning right and relative yield trends moving in the euro's favour, we can break higher," SocGen argues.
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