The EURUSD has been stepping down, staying below the 100 bar MA on the intraday 5 minute chart for most of the trading day. That MA (blue line in the chart above) is currently at the 1.2498 level. Staying below it, and the bears remain in firm control as the market seems more focused on the sell side today. Move above, and some of the bearishness is lost for the day with the 1.25089 (38.2% of the move down from Friday) and the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above) at the 1.2517 looking like the logical sell levels to eye.
Looking at the hourly chart the price is next targeting the 61.8% of the largely non-trending corrective month move higher (around 460 pips vs nearly 1,000 pips in May). That level comes in at the 1.24617. The low today reached 1.2470 where buyers likely entered against stops below that level retracement level . A move below the 1.24617 level, has a number of lows from June 6th to June 12th (at 1.2434-48) as the next target to get through. Once cleared, a move toward the low reached on June 1 at 1.2286 becomes the main focus for the pair.
With bearishness reasserting itself – after testing successfully the 38.2% of the 2012 range at 1.27443 last week – a move to new lows for the year is certainly a possiblity. Key levels to keep in mind on the downside include:
- The 1.2131 level which is the midpoint of the EURUSD range since it’s inception (see chart below).
- The 1.2061 is the 200 month moving average, and
- The most recent low at 1.1876 (June 2010 low).
The low from 2010 came a few weeks after the 1st Greek bailout (110 billion Euros). Two years later, another bailout, more promises, a new government(s), increased concerns about countries like Spain and Italy, and the EURUSD pair is still 600 pips higher. HMMM.
