Draghi press conference continues with comments that seem to be balanced between downside risk and inflation concerns. The market has kept a bearish bias for the pair after NY took the price below the key support at the 100 day MA and the 38.2% retracement of the 2012 trading range (at the 1.3155). This level remains a key level in trading today with a move above a concern for the sellers.
Other levels to eye on the charts:
- The trendline support on the daily chart (see above) comes in at the 1.3122 level. The price is trading above and below the level with the low for the day at 1.3109. The high since the start of the speech comes in at the 1.3137
- This trendline will be used for bullish/bearish clues. The market is choppy around the level as fear from Draghi comments increases and keeps traders on edge.
- The range for the day is at 130 pips (110 is the 20 day average today). After the 155 pip range yesterday, it makes the average over the last two days the highest since March 8th and 9th.
- The trend down has accelerated since the price broke below the 100 day MA and the 38.2% retracement (see chart below) at the 1.3155 level.
- Other level to consider above is the 1.3133. This level was the low from March 22nd. This is a topside resistance level to eye for clues.
The non trending market that gripped the EURUSD from March 26th to yesterday, is now in a trend. Trends are fast, directional and tend to have large ranges. They also end at some point and transition into a non trend. The range so far from the high yesterday is around 262 pips. Is there more room to roam? Yes. This is still a modest move if the trend is to continue.
