EURUSD pushes higher in early NY trading.

The EURUSD has moved higher in early NY trading in what has so far been a lackluster trading day. The range for the day is 67 pips. The last 20 days average has been 108 pips. So volatility is down. However, there is the potential for an extension up or down today.

From a technical perspective, the price is showing a bullish bias this morning. The price is just above the close from yesterday was at 1.2927. The price moved back above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.29157 and 1.2924 level respectively. This is the first time in the London session that the price has shifted above these moving averages. On the hourly chart (see below), the price is back above the 1.29148 level. This is the 38.2% of the move up from the September low. The price had not closed above this level in the London session (until the recent move). The price bottomed against trend line support on the hourly chart at the lows (see chart below). This is indicative of buyers on downside.

Going forward for today the dynamics are reversed from yesterday. Whereas, the price needed to get above the 1.29148-18 level to switch the bias back higher yesterday (and it finally did just that – see chart below), today the price has to move back below this level/area to swing the bias back to the downside. On the topside, the targets above include the high for the day at 1.2952 and the 100 hour MA at the 1.2971 level currently (also was high from yesterday’s London morning session). On a move above the 100 hour MA, the focus will move toward the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) and topside trend line on the hourly chart at the 1.3010 level.

At 9 AM S&P Case Schiller Composite index will be released with the expectation of a 1.05% gain YoY. Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and House Price Index will be released at 10 AM. Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 63.1 fro 60.6. Richmond Fed is expected to rise to -5 from -9 last month (but remain negative) and the House Price Index is expected to rise by 0.6% vs +0.7% last month.