I thought the 50% of the days range would hold at 1.2223 (see earlier post – 50% of the days range). Instead, the price fell below this level only to have traders stop the decline at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart above) and 50% of the move higher from the NY low.
The price has now rotated back above the 100 hour MA 1.22317 and looking toward the 1.2253 retracement level (38.2% of the move down from July 6th high). If the price can move above this level, the high for the day (from the 1st hour of trading this week) at 1.22717, and the 50% of the move down from July 6th (at 1.22812) become the next targets. The 200 hour MA at 1.23093 area is another level to eye should the bullish bias continue.
On the downside, the price bounce off the 100 bar MA and 50% on the 5 minute chart should be encouraging for the buyers/longs. However, they have to keep control and push the price above the resistance targets above. IF the price can not extend, I would not be surprised if the buyers give up and push the market back lower 0n the 2nd disappointment of the days upside attempt (I would not welcome a move below 1.2210-19. Some impatient buyers may not like a close on the hourly below the 100 hour MA at 1.22311 ). For the time being though, the bulls are in control but looking for that upside momentum satisfaction.
