Stick with what's working
It's painful to ride alongside an overwhelming consensus but it worked in 2015. US dollar longs were everyone's favourite trade at the start of the year and they've delivered.
The US dollar so far trails only the Swiss franc as the top performer this year (and it's close).
Going into 2016, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, BNP Paribas Credit Suisse all recommend EUR/USD shorts this year. The median estimate for 2016 is 1.05.
Barclays, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse and Danske all recommend AUD/USD shorts for 2016.
UBS, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs and RBC all recommend USD/JPY longs for 2016.
I'll reiterate what I wrote at the end of last year:
"By this point, you've likely heard a dozen reasons to buy the US dollar. It's tough to follow the crowd and chase a trade that's already rallied but if you want to make a Resolution in your trading in the year ahead, don't fret so much about following the crowd - make friends with the trend because it's almost always where the best trades lie."
