WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the summary of the
latest Beige Book survey of economic conditions, published by
the Federal Reserve Wednesday:
(Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and based on
information collected on or before September 28, 2012. This document
summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside
the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal
Reserve officials.)
Summary
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that
economic activity generally expanded modestly since the last report. The
New York District noted a leveling off in economic activity, and Kansas
City indicated some slowing in the pace of growth. In general, other
Districts reported that growth continued at a modest pace.
Consumer spending was generally reported to be flat to up slightly
since the last report. A number of Districts characterized retail sales
as expanding at a modest pace, while reports from New York, Chicago, and
Kansas City indicated flat or softening sales. Vehicle sales were also
generally characterized as stable but up from a year earlier and
generally at favorable levels. Used car sales were mixed. Most Districts
described tourism as fairly robust, though Kansas City noted some
general softening, while New York and Dallas indicated some scattered
signs of weakening. Residential real estate conditions improved since
the last report. Most Districts reported strengthening in existing home
sales, while prices were described as steady to increasing, with
declining inventories noted in the Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Dallas,
and San Francisco Districts. Residential construction was also described
as rising in most Districts. Commercial real estate markets were mixed
since the last report. Office markets showed signs of softening in the
northeastern DistrictsBoston, New York, and Philadelphiawhile most
other Districts reported stable or mixed market conditions. Industrial
markets showed some strength in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland,
and Atlanta Districts, while softer conditions were noted in Richmond.
Conditions in the manufacturing sector were mixed but, on balance,
somewhat improved since the last report. The Boston, Richmond, Atlanta,
St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts reported some
expansion in activity, whereas New York, Chicago, and Minneapolis
reported some weakening in activity. The nonfinancial services sector
showed modest improvement in the latest reporting period. Richmond,
Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco reported some expansion in
activity, while New York and Philadelphia indicated steady or mixed
conditions.
Overall loan demand was steady to stronger in most Districts.
Credit standards were little changed since the last report, and a number
of Districts noted improvements in loan quality or steady to declining
delinquency rates. Agricultural conditions were mixed, with drought
conditions continuing to adversely affect much of the mid-section of the
nation. Activity in the energy sector remained robust.
Districts mostly reported little change in prices of both finished
goods and inputs. Prices for agricultural commodities and
petroleum-based products were generally reported to be higher, while
natural gas prices were said to be low or declining. Employment
conditions were little changed since the last report. Several Districts
continued to report shortages of highly skilled workers, but otherwise
wage pressures remained modest. Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago
noted increases in the costs of employee medical benefits.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending was mixed but generally reported to be flat to up
slightly over the latest reporting period. Retail sales were said to
have improved modestly in the Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis,
and San Francisco Districts, while sales were characterized as flat to
softer in the New York and Kansas City Districts. In general, retail
sales were reported to be running only modestly ahead of a year ago. A
number of reports noted various factors affecting sales, such as rising
gasoline prices, political uncertainty, concerns about the fiscal
cliff and weather. Atlanta and San Francisco noted that discounters
have been outperforming traditional department stores. Cleveland
reported that back-to-school merchandise sold well, while Chicago said
that such sales were below expectations. Boston noted a pickup in
furniture sales, Richmond cited brisk sales at building supplies stores,
and San Francisco reported stronger demand at restaurants and
food-service establishments.
Vehicle sales were mixed but generally at favorable levels. Sales
of new vehicles were steady to stronger and running ahead of comparable
2011 levels. Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco
described sales as strong, while New York and Chicago reported some
moderation in sales in September, after a fairly strong August. Kansas
City and Dallas reported some softening or leveling off in sales. The
Cleveland and Kansas City Districts noted that crossover SUVs have been
selling well relative to less fuel-efficient vehicles. Sales of used
vehicles were mixed, with San Francisco describing them as robust but
New York and Cleveland characterizing them as flat.
Tourism was generally described as steady at robust levels, though
there have been scattered indications of some softening. Boston, New
York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis and San Francisco
described tourism as strong, whereas the Kansas City and Dallas
Districts indicated some signs of weakening. Even Districts reporting
strength noted some pockets of softening: Boston reported a small drop
in advance bookings, New York indicated a dip in activity in
mid-September, Richmond noted a significant drop in government-sponsored
bookings, and Atlanta mentioned disappointing cruise bookings and
on-board spending. The Dallas District noted weakening travel demand
from Europe and Asia; Atlanta also indicated weakening traffic from
Europe but added that Canadian and Latin American visitors largely
picked up the slack.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate showed widespread improvement since the
last report. All twelve Districts reported that existing home sales
strengthened, in some cases substantially. Selling prices were steady or
rising. Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco noted
declining or tight inventories, which have put upward pressure on
prices. Modest price increases were reported in the New York, Richmond,
Chicago, and Kansas City Districts. New York and Richmond reported
relatively strong demand at the high and low ends of the market, whereas
Philadelphia and Kansas City noted relative strength for mid-range
homes; Boston indicated a shift in the mix toward lower or medium priced
homes. New home construction and sales were more mixed but still mostly
improved: increased construction and/or new home sales were reported in
the Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco
Districts. Multi-family construction, in particular, was described as
robust in the Boston, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts.
Residential rental markets continued to be characterized as strong, even
in the New York and Atlanta Districts where rents increased somewhat
less strongly than in recent months.
Commercial real estate markets were mixed since the last report.
Office markets showed signs of softening in the northeastern
DistrictsBoston, New York and Philadelphiawith New York remarking on
substantial new supply coming on the market in early 2013. In contrast,
Atlanta, Minneapolis and San Francisco noted some improvement, while
most other Districts reported stable or mixed market conditions.
Industrial markets showed some strength in the New York, Philadelphia,
Cleveland and Atlanta Districts, while conditions were described as
sluggish in Richmond and mixed in St. Louis. Atlanta noted weakness in
the market for retail space. Commercial construction activity was also
mixed: Atlanta, Minneapolis and Kansas City reported some improvement in
non-residential construction activity, while Richmond and Dallas noted
that activity was sluggish.
-more- (1 of 2)
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$]