After the initial Bloomberg leak, other wires decided to publish the Minutes:
Reuters:
- Officials agreed to alter statement on when to hike interest rates by saying 'some' further improvement in labor market, inflation outlook
- One official was ready to hike but willing to wait for more info
- Many officials thought labor market slack would be largely eliminated in near term
- Some Fed officials said hike still not warranted but "were approaching that point"
- No decision yet on phasing out reinvestments
- Most participants want to end balance sheet reinvestment of MBS and Treasuries using different strategies
Here's what MNI said:
- Some language reflects further progress toward goals
- "Not much new-- does not target Sept hike but does not preclude."
The first leaked headline looked hawkish but the detailed headlines are dovish, with no clear hint at a September high.
What a mess.
Update: Now the full Minutes are up on the Fed site:
- "It was noted that considerable uncertainty remained about when wages might begin to accelerate and whether that development might translate into increased price inflation."
- "Some participants cited downside risks to inflation"
- "Most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point."
- "It was also noted that a prompt start to normalization would likely convey the Committee's confidence in prospects for the economy."
I posted earlier that "it was noted" probably refers to the Chair. That might swing things back toward the hawkish side of the equation.
