The 55-day moving average is one pip above the 200-day moving average and will surely cross below in the next couple of days. It will be the first such Death Cross in the pair since July 2013 but that time it only lasted a couple weeks and the euro weakness was barely sustained.
EURUSD death cross in 2013 amounted to nothing
The last sustained Death Cross was in October 2011 and although EUR/USD first climbed about 500 pips, it eventually fell more than 1500.
The 2011 death cross led to larger losses.
The way I see it you have two of three elements you need to sell EUR/USD:
- This technical setup is bearish
- The ECB is dovish and may undertake QE
But I think in order to pull the trigger you need one more thing to fall into place:
- The Fed to do or say something hawkish