Fitch rating comments and projections

  • UK ratings of balance a high income, diversified and advanced economy against comparatively high public sector indebtedness
  • Projects public debt will likely rise again in 2016 to 42.5% of GDP and peak in 2018 at 43.5% of GDP. This is still below "B" median of 55.8% of GDP
  • Expects UK to invoke article 50 by the end of March 2017. Implying the UK would leave the EU two years later
  • says there is a wide range of possible outcomes concerning negotiations over brags it in future institutional and trade relationships between the UK and EU
  • expects general government deficit to be 3.6% of GDP this year
  • says assumes that private-sector investment growth will decline in 2017
  • given this uncertainty UK's ratings are not predicated on any particular base case
  • real GDP rose by 0.7% quarter on quarter in 2Q 2016 and initial estimates point to 0.5% growth in 3Q.