This pair is still at the mercy of the biggest player in the market, China, and they are pretty much able to do what they want in the short term. I will stress however that only in the short term are they able to influence the market, especially on the downside. China is naturally short AUD (as they are trying to buy up any mineral resources they can get their hands on) and they try and play the spot market so as to keep the market from running away from them. If the AUD/USD stays range-bound, they are happy. At some stage, if the AUD/USD starts galloping higher, they are going to have to trigger their stop-losses and start buying. When this happens, we will see AUD/USD moving 300/400 pips higher in a day, regardless of what is happening in the other majors. EUR/AUD is close to 2.0, which is way overvalued based on historical evidence, and given the state of both regions economies, this relationship cannot last. I cannot see any reason for being short the AUD against any of the majors, except possibly the JPY where the long-term market remains tied in to long positions and at some stage will have to bail.