Retail Sales due out at 8:30 AM ET.
The April (yes 2Q so more important) US retail sales will be released at 8:30 AM with expectations for 0.2% gain (vs. 0.9% in March). Taking out auto's and gas again is expected to be +0.6% vs. 0.5% last month.
With the EURUSD mired in a 66 pip trading range for the day, look for a surprise (from expectations) to extend the trading range.
On the downside today, the European session low was able to fall below the 100 and 200 hour moving average (blue and green line in the chart above) and also the 100 day moving average at the 1.12077 level today (blue horizontal line in the chart above). The low for the day extended to 1.1201 before reversing and moving back higher. A break below these levels should certainly put the bears in control (on a stronger number) and establish the levels as new resistance. THe 1.1172 and 1.1130 become targets to the downside.
ON the topside, the high for the day extended just above the 50% retracement of the move down from last week's high to this week's low. That level comes in at the 1.12607 level (the high extended to 1.1265). On a move above, the 50% should then become support/risk for longs with the upside looking toward 1.1291 and 1.1316 targets.
Risk is increased as a result of the release. Look for traders to enter after the report should it be off from the consensus and in the process extend the trading range toward something more respectable. The average trading range over the last 22 trading days is around 139 pips. So there is room to roam (and also get away from the MA levels in the chart above).
