Summer Monday doldrums

The forex market is off to a quiet start as Greece comes off the front page news and markets move toward events, economic releases and central bank policy. Draghi said last week that QE would go to completion. Yellen reiterated that she expects to raise rates in 2015.

This should be a negative to the EURUSD and the pair tried to trade lower in Asia-Pacific trading, but failed to get below the 2 month low from May 27 at the 1.08183 level. The low for the day came in at 1.08198. Close but no cigar. Head back higher.

The range for the day is an anemic 44 pips for the common currency. If that were to hold up as the range today, it would represent the most narrow trading range since September 2014. I don't expect that to happen even if it is the summer, a Monday with a Monday finish to The Open (golf). The chart above shows that all currencies with the exception of the NZD (comments from PM John Key who said the fall in the NZD was faster than expected), have ranges well below the average over the last 22 trading days. The average range for the EURUSD is 125 pips. I don't think we will get there today, but....

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Looking at the 5- minute charts, the pair is up on the day, and moves toward the high at 1.0864 - after trying to equal the Asian-Pacific low and failing. The 38.2-50% of the days range is 1.0847-419. The pair is up on the day (closed at 1.0828). Do you buy at the 50% retracement level (and 100 bar MA - see blue line in the chart above) and hope for the path of least resistance to be up now (since we are higher on the day)? Just eyeballing the price action today, most of the trading took place below the days midpoint. So the sellers had their chance. If that is the case - along with being up on the day, there is room to roam. It can go either way folks. Let's face it.

Looking at the hourly chart below, the price just tested the topside trend line on the hourly chart and held (7th time up there testing the line). That certainly is a concern for the dip buyers (hence don't risk a lot). However, if there is a buyer and that line is broken, the 38.2% of the move down and the 100 hour MA are at 1.0918 area (currently and coming down). This - and the high from Friday at 1.0906) will be targets potential targets.

Flip a coin. Don't risk much.