I have to admit, i don’t normally look at the Kiwi because it brings back bad memories from my NY shift days (never fun making prices in size in something that illiquid during NY) but something made me take a look on the weekend and i liked what i saw.
And what did i see?? I saw a currency pair that should be on its way back to 0.5440/50, the high from early Feb, and also the level that last time we broke, we headed 400 points higher so i am expecting this to be the first decent level of support for this move lower. Expect to see minor support at 0.5550 but i am expecting this to give way after an decent attempt or two. It is also worth noting that the 100 DMA comes in at the 0.5450 region at the moment.
Pay attention to the technical studies on the daily chart as they are all trying to work off their overbought condition and with momentum having stalled and the difficulty we are having taking care of the 0.5800 level, lower levels here we come!
If we take out the 0.5800/30 region then all bets are off and we should move towards 0.6050, but, until that occurs, i am looking to sell the Kiwi on bounces to 0.5730 and 0.5780 with stops above 0.5830, take something off the table ahead of 0.5570 and go with a break below 0.5550, all for a move to 0.5450, initially.
