Forex news from the European morning session 16 Feb

News:

  • Saudi Arabia freezes oil output at 11 Jan levels
  • Iran willing to join production freeze
  • Iraq now joins the list of those ready to freeze production
  • Saudi's may still think about cuts in production - Livesquawk
  • Oil not fooled by smoke and mirrors news
  • It's not at all true to say that Abenomics has collapsed
  • Year-end flows could see USDJPY capped at 115.00
  • USDJPY at 115-120 is a good range says Japan's Yamamoto
  • PBOC say they will use various tools to maintain adequate liquidity
  • Hold the front page! Latest UK Brexit poll sees clear vote to remain in EU
  • Cable makes a round trip as pre-data surge fades
  • Where now for the pound? More from Goldman Sachs
  • Nikkei closes up +0.2% at 16,054.43
  • China's equity markets close higher 16 Feb
  • Option expiries 10am NY cut today 16 Feb

Data:

  • January 2016 UK CPI 0.3% vs 0.3% exp y/y
  • UK PPI input Jan mm NSA -0.7% vs -1.2% exp
  • February 2016 German ZEW economic sentiment 1.0 vs 0.0 exp

It's been another busy session with the focus this time on oil and the pound both of which have enjoyed a roller coaster ride.

Chinese equities closed up 3.29% the largest one-day gain since Nov but the Nikkei faded into its close and European equity markets have been trawling around in negative territory.

It's been a mixed bag all over the show with the euro finding a bit of support on softer equities but EURUSD failed into 1.1200 which initially led to euro losses elsewhere only to recover.

EURGBP flirted with 0.7700 support/demand as the pound found buyers ahead of the UK inflation data, aided by a latest poll reading in favour of UK remaining in the EU. Cable surged to 1.4517 from 1.4450 but then data and fresh supply/offers meant a return to the lower level and more with the pair printing 1.4427 as I type. EURGBP has moved back up to 0.7737.

Headlines and counter-claims from the Doha oil meeting had oil at first surging as Saudi announced an oil production freeze only to fall again as the reality/further details told us that no agreement had yet been set in stone.

Heady days with USDCAD similarly down and up like the proverbial with moves to 1.3705 from 1.3740 back to 1.3820 and then down to 1.3675 so far.

Elsewhere yen gains were seen amidst talk of year-end repatriation flows and dovish tones from the Japanese govt. Early Nikkei-led rallies were faded above 114.80 and we saw steady declines to 113.66 before finding fresh demand back above 114.00. Yen pairs have similarly been mostly undermined.

USDCHF and EURCHF have enjoyed support again with AUDUSD and NZDUSD pinned down by cross plays.

US NY Empire State mftg survey and Canadian mftg sales readings due out at 13.30 GMT and this session has a lot more to offer up before the day is out.