Forex news for US trading June 3, 2015:
- May 2015 US ISM non manufacturing PMI 55.7 vs 57.0 exp
- ADP May US employment 201K vs 200K expected
- ECB leaves main refinance rate unchanged at 0.05%
- Draghi: ECB sees no sign of bubble risk, Greek economy is viable
- ECB is not surprised by higher inflation says Draghi -Skips around QE finish date
- Domestic demand in EZ remains strong, recovery is on track says Draghi
- Draghi: Wants Greece to stay in the Euro - Coeure text release was a mistake
- May 2015 US Markit services PMI final 56.2 vs 56.4 exp
- Beige Book: 4 districts saw moderate growth, 3 modest growth
- US April trade balance -$40.9B vs -$44.0B expected
- Canada April international merchandise trade balance -$2.97B vs -$2.15B expected
- Schaeuble: Optimism on Greek negotiation progress not justified
- Greek creditors not negotiating with a united front
- Juncker-Tsipras meeting will be private, no statement expected
- Greek exit would be a costly solution to problems says ESM's Regling
- Greek proposal pledges to curb early retirement, sees primary surplus at 0.8% - RTRS
- EIA crude oil inventories -1.95m vs -2.1m expected
- Gold down $7 to $1186
- WTI crude down $1.65 to $63.84
- S&P 500 up 4 points to 2113
- US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 2.36%
- German 10-year yields up 17 bps to 0.88%
- Euro leads, NZD lags
The day was supposed to be about the ECB and economic data but the bund stole the show as it was routed for the second day. The collapse in the long-bund/short euro trade caused a massive squeeze and sent the euro to its worst two day loss since 2009.
The first move in EUR/USD at the start of US trading was lower after Draghi grumbled about slightly disappointing growth due to a slowdown in emerging markets. But that trip to 1.1080 was quickly reversed and the pair jumped to 1.1120. As Draghi continued it was clear that no dovish surprises were coming and that was a green light to sell bunds. As a result the euro climbed and then soared to 1.1275. There was a 30-pip consolidation but the pair finished near the highs.
USD/JPY was riding high into US trading in a rebound from the previous day but even decent data couldn't sustain the bid and the pair fell back to 124.00 from 124.65. Much of the moves were crosscurrents from EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.
Cable fell on soft data in Europe but it recoupled the entire 100 pip loss and climbed to 1.5350 before a small dip to 1.5350 late. It's a clear sign that US dollar bulls are staying out of the way at the moment -- at least until NFP.
USD/CAD jumped to 70 pips to 1.2510 on soft Canadian trade data but reversed all the gains over the next few hours, even as oil began to wilt. Eventually the softness in oil helped the pair recover to 1.2470 but it later slipped to 1.2450.
AUD/USD was more in a mood for consolidation and was locked in the Asia-Pacific range of 0.7750 to 0.7825, finishing in the middle.
