Forex news for US trading on Sept 15, 2015:

  • US August advance retail sales +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
  • August 2015 US industrial production -0.4% vs -0.2% exp
  • September 2015 US Empire State manufacturing index -14.67 vs -0.75 exp
  • August 2015 Canadian existing home sales +0.3% vs -0.4% prior m/m
  • Spain will meet its agreed budget deficit target of 4.2% of GDP IN 2015
  • World Bank says Fed rate hikes risk disorderly shift in market outlook
  • White House says it doesn't support oil exports
  • ECB's Nowotny hints at extension of QE program
  • New Zealand Fonterra dairy auction +16.5%
  • Chinese growth data may have a margin of uncertainty says IMF
  • US CEO's still remain cautious over US growth
  • Gold down $3.60 to $1105
  • WTI crude up 67-cents to $44
  • S&P 500 up 25 points to 1978
  • NZD leads, CHF lags

The clock is ticking towards the Fed decision and one of the final pieces of the puzzle was due with US retail sales. The headline doesn't look great but the internals were. Large upward revisions and a beat on the control group meant it was a very good report.

It took markets about 30 minutes to get the message and then USD/JPY began a nice rally that took it to 120.50 from 119.50. EUR/USD and (especially) cable felt the US dollar strength and both pairs slipped substantially but the pound was especially weak.

Bonds were under heavy pressure and combined with the US dollar strength, that shows some concerns about the Fed hiking this week or offering a signal about an Oct/Dec hike. Meanwhile, the stock market doesn't appear to be overly worried. That might turn out to be a dangerous mix.

Late in the day the story was strength in the Aussie and kiwi. There wasn't any particular catalyst for the moves but they added another 30 pips to a move that started around the European close. NZD/USD was particularly impressive as it went from session low to session high in the space of 4 hours.

Oil was the final focus. The White House headlines sparked a quick round of selling but -- impressively -- oil bounced back. You could argue that the Commerce Dept has been given the final say but the chance of oil exports being approved definitely took a hit, even if it was only a small one. Then again, API supply numbers are probably the bigger story.