Forex news for US trading Sept 4, 2015

Economic News/Events:

  • August 2015 Canadian employment change +12.0k vs -4.5k exp
  • August US non-farm payrolls 173K vs 217K expected
  • Was that report enough for Yellen to hike rates at the Sep FOMC?
  • G20 communique says will tread carefully on mon pol
  • Canada August Ivey PMI 58.0 vs 53.3 expected
  • Baker Hughes US oil rig count 864 vs 877 prior
  • CFTC commitments of traders: JPY shorts cover during week

News

  • Lacker: Payrolls report was a reasonably strong increase
  • Lacker: No one thinks the Fed will move a quarter-point each meeting
  • Three reasons for a Friday fall in US stock markets
  • EURUSD whips around
  • More good news and the Canadian dollar still can't hold a bid
  • Italy sees 0.3% q/q growth in Q3
  • Cable falls to four-month low in ninth straight day of losses
  • Not a pretty day for European stocks
  • EURUSD on again/off again love affair with 100 day MA continues
  • Fed Fischer details gradual tightening approach to G-20
  • US Treasury Secretary Lew on China at G20
  • EU Commissioner Moscovici speaks to reporters after G-20
  • UBS says Fed central tendencies are being met
  • Barclays: Low inflation and uncertain global demand keeps Fed grounded
  • Reuters survey: 7 of 17 Primary dealers see rate hike in September
  • Banks continue to weigh in with Fed thoughts (although a little wishy-washy)
  • US stocks end the day/week down

The US Employment report was the dominant news for the day. Non-farm payroll rose by 173 (vs 217 est). The unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.3% last month. There was a revision of 44K from the prior months which softened the blow from the weaker headline number.

The dollar initially fell on the weaker NFP headline, then rallied back higher. For the EURUSD the pair rallied to 1.1183 before tumbling to the lows for the day in the first 5-minutes. The range was done for the day. The rest of the NY trading day trading on the bottom half of the near 100 pip range and the second half trading on the top half of the day's range. The EURUSD closed near the midpoint at 1.1136 (the pair closed at 1.1141), It also closed above the 100 day MA (at 1.1111 today). On the week, the pair was down about 44 pips.

The USDJPY had done most of the downside work for the day before the US session. Nevertheless, it too moved sharply on the employment headlines. And like the EURUSD the pair closed near the employment spike midpoint. For the USDJPY this was still well off the closing level from Thursdays trade (closed at 118.98 vs 120.04 Thurs close). For the week the pair is down from 121.65. The low today bottomed near low levels from Feb-April. That is the bullish news. The bearish technical news for the week is the pair fell below the 200 day MA on Tuesday and stayed below.

Cable ends the week at the lows. It has been 9 straight down days. The peak nine days ago was at 1.5816. The low and close today was at 1.5156 and 1.5164 respectively. The low today took out the June lows at 1.5169.

Canada employment saw the net change in employment rise by 12K. The better news is that Full time employment rose by an oversized 54.4K vs -17.3K last month. The unemployment rate rose to 7.0% but participation rate also rose to 65.9 which may have contributed to that rise. Ivey PMI also rose to 58.0 from 53.3. The CAD must have gotten stronger? No. There was an initial fall on the employment data, but the rest of the day saw the USDCAD move higher. Oil prices stayed weak today. For the week, the pair was higher from last Friday but the move there was certainly an up and down path.

The other commodity currencies - AUDUSD and NZDUSD - traded lower. Stock declines and concerns about commodities continue to keep these pairs offered despite their yield advantage. The AUDUSD fell below a lower trend line today at 0.6948 and closed just below the 0.6900 level at 0.6899. Moving further away from the 0.7000 level. The NZDUSD also closed at the lows.

Stocks sucked wind again but rallied a bit in a volatile last hour. Bond yields fell.

Have a great weekend. China stock market open will be watched closely.