ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Japan, China data disappoint

Eamonn Sheridan

Monday, 15/02/2016 | 04:47 GMT

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 15 February 2016

China

China's Zhou says there is no basis for continuing yuan devaluation - More
China:"does not make too much sense for China to maintain a strong currency"
Property price collapse - happening, just not where you expect
China January trade balance (USD terms): exports -11.2% and imports -18.8% y/y
China customs comments - expects exports to improve in Q2
China Trade balance (January): CNY 406.2bn (expected +389.01bn)
Nutjobs rocking it today. I should have realized it was going to be popcorn day.
China stockmarket opening indications - Shanghai Comp to open -2.8%
People's Bank of China (PBOC) sets yuan reference rate at 6.5118
PBOC open market operations today: Injects 10 bn yuan today
USD/CNY mid-point from the PBOC today - 3 guesses from the banks

Japan

Japan data: December (final) Industrial Production: -1.7% m/m (flash was -1.4%)
BOJ's Kuroda comments on retail bank accounts
Barclays Trade Of The Week: Hedge The Downside, Sell EUR/JPY
Japan weak Q4 GDP: Matter of time before BOJ & government will add additional stimulus
SNB intervention talk won't go away: hinges on ECB decisions and CHF response
Japan PM Abe: Excessive volatility in FX is undesirable
Japan PM Abe says needs to consider impact on consumers of tax rise
Japan Q4 GDP: -0.4% q/q (expected -0.2%)

Australian data - January new motor vehicle sales: +0.5% m/m (prior -0.5%)

UK data - Rightmove House Prices (February) +2.9% m/m (prior +0.5%)
Kuwait Petroleum CEO: "Global oil market ... we have reached the bottom"
Weekend - ECB's Praet: Extended market volatility could delay rise in inflation
NZ Services PMI for January: 55.4 (prior 58.5, revised from 58.9)
Trade ideas thread for Monday 15 February 2016
Hi central bankers! Trying to stimulate the economy? Negative rates are the wrong tool
ECB Executive Board Member Cœuré: Won't talk about individual banks
China holiday retail sales reports show a big, big jump
Weekend - Oil - Nigeria says growing OPEC consensus to end price rout
Welcome to the new week - Monday 15 February 2016 - FX prices, early indications

Weekend:

Choose your words carefully in the brave new FX world
Saudi Arabia said to ease rules on bank lending
China's Zhou says there is no basis for continuing yuan devaluation
Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem rejects call for looser banking regulation as shares tumble
In FX, pro traders are dying, retail traders rising
Goldman Sachs 10 commandments of the 2016 forex market - revisited
Video: What's really roiling markets in 2016

A day of terrible analysis out there on twitter and the blogosphere and even the professional media. I lost count of how many times I saw the headless chooks posting **** like:

"Largest fall in USD/CNY for 3 months!!!"
"China stock markets trashed at the open!!!"

Was it free stupid pills somewhere today or something?

Let me explain what happened for Dummies. If you've got half a brain you can ignore this next bit and move along:

Chinese markets, stock markets and the CNY, were closed all last week.
During this week global stock markets fell
During this week the USD fell
Chinese markets reopened today and opening rates were lower to try to match up with these global falls
The 'offshore' yuan (CNH) traded last week, and it appreciated against the USD, along with just about everything else.

Apologies if you are new to all this, my 'dummies' remark is not applicable to noobs. If you are new you are most likely attracted to these tweets, blogs, even media that take a 'we are all doomed' perspective. Don't be, its farcical. Stick with someone who is going to give you something much more boring - whats really happening. You'll get on track much more quickly. Stuff like this is not rocket science.

OK, 'nuff rant. Back to it.

The week pretty much kicked off with Q4 GDP (preliminary) out of Japan, which showed falls greater than expected, slipping back into negative again. The USD/JPY had already traded higher leading into the data and after a pullback continued on its way. The Nikkei had a great session following on from Friday.

The People's Bank of China set the mid-point for the USD/CNY at a higher level for the yuan, and China trade data soon followed (see rant, above).

USD/JPY continued higher through the session (as of writing). EUR/USD drifted lower today, down around 30 or so points net. The CHF lost ground also, USD/CHF ticking up around 0.9800.

AUD and NZD, too had decent sessions, 'risk on' sentiment not doing them any harm and a resilient AUD/USD priving yet again, err, resilient.

Gold dropped hard, testing down under 1215 as I update. Cable is up a few tics while oil is little changed after the weekend.

USD/CNY and USD/CNH continued lower (as of writing):