Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 17 March 2016

  • Yen gaining, USD/JPY below overnight lows now
  • Australian employment report - some responses
  • SNB and BoE meetings coming up soon - previews
  • Support becomes resistance (oil hedging edition)
  • More China trade balance comments from MOFCOM
  • Oil update - ANZ on the smaller than expected inventory rise
  • Japan trade data for February - recap
  • China Ministry of Commerce says: Weak exports? "Its all your fault!"
  • China February FDI up 1.8% y/y (yuan terms)
  • Japan finance minister Aso says again he wants to raise sales tax as scheduled
  • People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets yuan reference rate at 6.4961
  • Australia data: Employment change: +0.3K (expected +13.5K)
  • Australian employment data coming up at the bottom of the hour
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda in parliament again today (from 1.30pm Tokyo time)
  • Japan trade balance for February: Y 242.8bn (expected Y 400.2bn)
  • Responses to the FOMC decision: "don't get it", "resigned", "spooked"
  • RBA's Debelle: Says would like a lower AUD
  • New Zealand Q4 GDP +0.9% q/q (+0.7% expected)
  • Trade ideas thread for St. Patrick's Day - Thursday 17 March 2016

A positive day for risk after the dovish tones from the FOMC, but local news and developments paid their role too.

NZ kicked us off with a beat for Q4 GDP, which sent the NZD higher. It consolidated the highs and is testing even higher as I update.

The AUD had a good day, too. We had a speech from an RBA Assistant Governor (Guy Debelle) earlier, but had to wait for the Q&A for currency-related comments. Debelle was pretty mild, saying the RBA would welcome a lower AUD, and that other central banks would welcome their own currencies lower also. AUD did little.

Australian employment data (February) was next, coming in well below expectations but an improvement from January. AUD had a very, very brief dip, not my much, and then started to gain ground, within a few minutes of the release it had taken out the high from earlier in the week, triggering stop-loss buys around and above 0.7600. The high was above 0.7615 before its stabilised a little lower.

Reflecting the lower USD in the wake of the FOMC China strengthened the CNY today. Markets in China (and elsewhere regionally) liked the overnight Federal Reserve decision, equities gaining. And thats not all; industrial metals were generally higher also.

USD/JPY ticked higher in the Tokyo morning, putting in a solid 50-odd point bounbce from the overnight low. Positive movement for the Nikkei was a helpful factor, though the gains there were good while the USD/JPY move higher was fairly subdued. After lunch time the Nikkei gave back a lot of its gains and the USD/JPY (and yen crosses) tumbled along with that, USD/JPY to new lows (compared to overnight.

EUR and CHF were both relatively subdued (though active against the yen), while GBP/USD managed a pop above 1.4280 before settling back 30+ points as I update.

Gold dribbled a few dollars lower after its strong post-FOMC gains.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +0.2%
  • Shanghai +0.56%
  • HK +1.44%
  • ASX +1.08%

Still to come:

  • SNB and BOE announcements (see bullets, above)

More:

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Hold the presses! As I post USD/JPY is making new lows still, close to 112.00 now, Nikkei has turned negative on the day (down 0.6%)