Forex news for Asia trading Monday 2 November 2015

Monday:

  • Japan - Barclays, Dai-ichi scrap forecasts for more BOJ stimulus
  • Nobody knows what the RBA board will do on Tuesday ... the board itself doesn't know
  • Goldman Sachs say EUR/USD going to 1.05 before December 3
  • Fed head Yellen speaks on Wednesday. Is it even worth waiting for?
  • Westpac on Oct. inflation gauge: "something changed in 2014", watching closely now
  • China data - Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October): 48.3(expected 47.6)
  • Japan - Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for October: 52.4 (flash 52.5)
  • People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets yuan reference rate at 6.3154
  • New Zealand Monthly Economic Indicators October 2015
  • Australia data - Building approvals for September: +2.2% m/m (expected +1.0%)
  • China Premier Li Keqiang weekend comments - a lot of room to grow
  • RBA 'shadow board' says to keep Australian cash rate on hold
  • Australia private inflation survey (TD/MI) for October: 0.0% m/m (prior 0.3%)
  • Australia - House Prices data for October +0.2% m/m (Prior was +0.9%)
  • Australia data - Manufacturing PMI (October): 50.2 (prior 52.1)
  • RBNZ's McDermott says the bank should not be judged on inflation outcomes
  • Trade ideas thread to start off the new week and month - Monday 2 November

Weekend

  • BOE to hold war game to help prevent cyber attack
  • Germany counting the cost of the refugee crisis
  • ESM says Greek capital shortfall is within bailout buffer
  • NZ finmin English weekend comments - interest rates may fall further
  • Bloomberg survey of oil companies shows output still growing
  • China PMIs (October): Manufacturing 49.8 (50.0 expected) Services 53.1 (53.4 prior)
  • North American clocks turn back
  • Draghi says the ECB will do what is needed to keep inflation target on track
  • ECB reports that Greek banks have a potential capital shortfall of €14.4bln
  • Russian airliner crashes in Sinai. 224 feared dead

A weak opening for the USD today in very early Monday trade, USD/JPY and USD/CHF down from closing levels in the US on Friday, with EUR/USD higher. AUD/USD and NZD/USD were lower on opening, though, weakness in the official China PMI (data released over the weekend) cited as a catalyst for these.

Gaps in the charts were pretty much covered during morning trade, for all bar the EUR which has remained relatively stronger (despite Draghi's weekend comments). The yen ... after USD/JPY ticked higher from its soft opening its now retesting lows as the session has wore on. AUD and NZD are near session highs as I update after covering their morning weakness also.

Chinese private survey PMI released Monday came in at a 'less worse' reading, while Australian building approvals data improved on the month.

Of more note, though, was the expected strengthening of the yuan at the PBOC mid-point setting today; after last week's gains for the yuan the USD/CNY mid-point was set at its lowest (i.e. yuan at its highest) since the big August devaluation, and the biggest % jump for a yuan pricing since 2005.

Chinese stocks (Shanghai Composite) opened with a big gap lower (see here for reports of arrests, shootings, & withdrawals).

Gold moved lower at the open but has recovered to be only just below Friday's late level now.

And ... Turkish elections over the weekend have delivered victory to the AK Party, with a renewed majority and an apparent end ot parliamentary gridlock. The lira has been higher in early trade.

Regional equities:

  • Shanghai -0.02%
  • Nikkei -2.09%
  • HK -0.60%
  • ASX -1.17%

Don't forget - clocks in the US changed over the weekend. If you're trading US markets, take care you don't miss the openings!