Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 26 June 2019
- Bitcoin heads up through 12,000 USD
- ANZ on the RBNZ - see a rate cut in August
- Responses to the RBNZ coming in - "a stronger easing bias than it gave in May"
- North Korea says US moves an extreme act of hostility
- Minutes of the RBNZ meeting reiterate that a lower OCR may be needed over time
- NZD traders - RBNZ announce no change to cash rate - on hold
- China Beige Book says sees some improvement in China's economy in Q2
- EUR/USD forecast to hit 1.1800 - 'sooner than we think'
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8701 (vs. yesterday at 6.8580)
- Forex options expiring 26 June 2019 10 am NY cut
- Put this in your diary - US politics - Mueller to testify July 17
- Japan upper house election date set for July 21
- The news that China is banning meat imports from Canada is hitting again
- FOMC to cut in July? Watch the Trump - Xi meeting this week.
- National Australia Bank says the Fed is getting ready to cut rates (in July)
- BoA/ML expect the Fed to cut in September … but risk is skewed to a cut in July
- Japan press says the G20 draft communique promotes free trade to improve global economic growth
- Goldman Sachs say they have lowered Australia to 'underweight'
- Here is another forecast for the RBA to cut rates another 3 times this year
- Just waking up, seeing a higher USD and wondering 'What the …??? " - Here you go
- More on China suspending meat import from Canada
- Fed's Bullard - thinks 2 rate cuts by year end would provide a soft landing
- More than a quarter of Chinese exporters expect US trade war to be permanent
- More from the IMF - says NZD level is not an immediate concern, above long run average
- Goldman Sachs update their gold price forecasts, 3, 6 and 12 months (and on what could take it to $1600)
- More from Fed's Barkin - does not know if a rate cut (or cuts) will be needed this year
- IMF says RBNZ's current monetary policy stance fits subdued inflation conditions
- Reuters report that China is to halt all meat imports from Canada
- Goldman Sachs on what favours the euro higher in the short term
- Wednesday 26 June 2019 trade ideas thread
- Private survey oil data shows larger than expected draw in crude oil inventory
Bitcoin moved above 12,000 US dollars in Asia today while gold added to its overnight losses as it dropped under 1,410 USD. Crypto is moving on its own factors (Libra publicity doing it no harm) but gold's slump / pullback is in response to watering down (just a little) of Fed rate cut expectations during US trade Tuesday. Cuts still seem likely, its just the aggressiveness of cuts was wound back.
The USD gained more broadly during US trade Tuesday on this, but follow through for currencies here in Asia has been patchy.
USD/JPY is up towards 107.50, ie. trading above its US highs. USD/JPY stopped its rise in conjunction with some headlines out of North Korea - accusing the US of extreme hostility. While correlation is not causation it makes sense that some flows out of yen were at least postponed as the headlines were digested.
EUR, AUD and GBP have not done much on the session here against the big dollar
CAD lost ground in late North America trade with a story crossing (and going largely unnoticed, but not by us) that China had halted meat imports from Canada. About an hour or so later the news got a boost as it crossed other newswires and USD/CAD edged a little higher still.
Today we got the June monetary policy meeting decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank left the cash rate on hold after cutting in May. The accompanying statement from the Bak, and meeting summary, were very dovish indeed. The Bank's policy guidance was stated up front, at the beginning of the statement, and was repeated again at the end - the Bank wants there to be no doubt it is in easing mode. A cut in August seems likely, but we will see the data as it comes in ahead of then
The NZD response was a chop down to under 0.6600 (very briefly) before coming back to trade slightly above where it was going into the announcement. NZD/USD then tracked towards its overnight (US time) high circa 0.6660 before stopping its rise.
For the yuan traders - borrowing cost in China's interbank market dropped again. Shibor overnight rate to below 1% for the first time in a decade. China's economy is absolutely fine, nothing to see here (sarcasm folks).
