Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 28 April 2020
- China analysts said unemployment at 20% (vs,. officially at 5.9%) - withdraws their report
- China Gold Association says gold consumption in the country fell 48.2% y/y in Q1
- Oil is getting sold heavily - here is why
- Coronavirus - NZ PM Ardern says again to remain vigilant, stay at home if possible
- Australia March quarter inflation due Wednesday 29 April 2020 - preview
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0710 (vs. yesterday at 7.0703)
- FX option expiries for Tuesday April 28 at the 10am NY cut
- BOJ increases the size of its JGB purchases across all maturities in its buying operation today
- Coronavirus - ICYMI: Japan will extend its entry ban to Russia and 13 other countries
- The forecast for negative rates from the RBNZ weighing on the NZD - RBNZ to push back?
- More debt monetisation news - direct central bank buying of government bonds in Asia today
- Japan Jobless (Unemployment) rate for March: 2.5% (expected 2.5%)
- Australia consumer sentiment - ANZ/Roy Morgan survey 85 (prior 84.2)
- China to swoop in to buy aerospace company Embraer?
- Trump on North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un - "I hope he's fine"
- ICYMI - the new NAFTA, USMCA goes into effect July 1
- AUD/NZD gaining further - here's why
- Coronavirus - Australia's biggest (population) state has announced a small easing in restrictions
- Oil traders book US vessels to store gasoline, ship fuel overseas
- HKD - HK 'central bank' ramps up its defence of the band
- Australian Treasurer Frydenberg says will provide a fiscal outlook update in June
- South Korean data - consumer confidence (April) hits its lowest since December 2008
- Boeing says it will resume 787 operations in South Carolina on May 3, 4
- Fed expands scope and duration of Municipal Liquidity Facility
- New Zealand - Westpac expect the RBNZ will cut the cash rate to -0.5% late 2020
The New Zealand dollar was a mover during the session here today, the immediate catalyst being a note from Westpac forecasting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be moving to an Official Cash Rate of negative 0.5% in November this year. The forecast from Westpac comes on top of the background picture of RBNZ Governor Orr last week saying he would not rule out negative rates and also that he is 'open minded' on direct monetisation of government debt. The RBA have, so far, rejected considering negative rates, let alone monetisation, and since Orr's comments last week AUD has gained significantly against the NZD. It added to the gains today as the kiwi $ fell further.
Later in the session AUD/USD did a bit of a catch up with the falling NZD/USD.
On the AUD, we had the weekly consumer confidence survey result out today, which I do not mention as a factor for AUD very often, but noting today's result marked 4 consecutive weeks of improvement for the indicator after record lows were plumbed. Its up more than 25% from the lows although its still net pessimistic at 85.0.
Oil prices fell on the session, WTI CL June contract below $11. ForexLive has been all over the reasons for weak prices so I won't repeat here, but if you need a refresher see the bolded post in the bullets above.
Major FX, apart from the move in NZD (and to a lesser extent AUD) was relatively subdued. Cable is lower while CAD saw some losses alongside the fall for oil prices.
Stocks were net weaker, both here in the region and on overnight US index trade. The BOJ boosted its JGB buys at its scheduled operation today.
AUD/NZD hourly - note the recent bottom was put in the day we reported on Orr's monetisation comments:
