Forex news for Asia trading on Wednesday 30 June 2021
- RBA monetary policy meeting July 6 - preview
- TD flag a risk of AUD/USD dropping to circa 0.7245
- Goldman Sachs has said again they are bullish on the oil price, but wary of OPEC+
- Australia data - private sector credit for May +0.4% m/m
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.4601 (vs. yesterday at 6.4567)
- NZ data - Business Confidence (prior 1.8) & Activity Outlook (prior 27.1)
- China official PMIs for June. Manufacturing 50.9 (vs. expected 50.8), Services 53.5 (expected 52.7)
- Australian securities regulator consulting on exchange-traded crypto-related products
- Japan Industrial Production for May (preliminary) -5.9% m/m (expected -2.4%)
- Recap of Fed's Waller - "does not rule out 2022 rate hike"
- South Korea industrial output falls m/m in May (strongly up y/y due to 2020 basket case year)
- UK BRC Shop Price Index for June -0.7% y/y (vs. prior -0.6%)
- More from Fed's Waller - inflation to be above target for the next few months
- Buffett and Munger TV interview coming up at the top of the hour (let me try this again)
- Fed's Waller says US jobs market has not quite come back to pre-COVID
- BlackRock wary on US stockmarkets - point to risks from higher taxes, peak growth
- "NZD weakness continues to look fundamentally unjustified"
- ICYMI - World’s biggest interdealer broker launching a cryptocurrency trading platform
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 30 June 2021
- Private oil survey data shows a large headline draw in crude oil inventory
It was another session of muted ranges for major forex rates as Asia seemed content to await Friday's US nonfarm payroll figures. News flow was very light although we did get some data points, notably:
- Japanese industrial production fell on the month, its first drop (m/m) in 3 months
- Falling also were official PMIs from China (for June) although manufacturing held in with only a minor decline despite COVID-19 disruptions in the major industrial hub of Guangdong province
- New Zealand business activity increased in June (although business confidence recorded a small drop)
- Australian credit growth was once again led by the surging housing market
On the central bank front Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Waller gave a TV interview, he indicated he thought the Bank was still some time away from tapering (and rate hikes) given progress still needs to be made on employment. Waller said we should expect above-target inflation over coming months. Waller was a little more humble than many other Fed officials, literally saying that he could not rule out a rate hike next year, noting that the jobless rate would have to fall substantially or inflation continue at a very high rate before the FOMC would take a hike seriously.
Oil traded higher - the private survey oil inventory showed a larger than expected draw which seemed to help give it a kick along.
As I've said, major rates have been quietly rangebound, cable a stand out if you want one, up 40 or so points from session lows at one stage. There was no news of note for GBP, although the England team did win a soccer game (I know, its 'football' but I can't help myself ;-) )
