Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 7 October 2015

  • BOJ leaves policy unchanged ... and the move in USD/YEN 20 minutes before the announcement ... Yen on the move ... no BOJ announce as yet
  • Japan's Yamamoto: Essence of Abenomics is monetary policy
  • BOJ previews, if you're still interested
  • Preview of the Bank of Japan meeting from BoA / ML
  • What time is the BOJ announcement? And why it matters, especially today.
  • What To Expect From BoJ? ... Views From 11 Major Banks

China

  • China September forex reserves $3.51tln, gold reserves $61.2bn
  • UK hedge fund says now is the time to buy Chinese stocks
  • Moody's forecast China real GDP to grow 6.8% in 2015 & 6.3% in 2016
  • China markets still on holidays ... But I hope the Mercedes shop is open

Oil

  • API crude oil inventories: Crude inventory down 1.2mln barrels
  • Goldman Sachs: Oil needs a capitulation

The Fed's John Williams spoke today, and spoke, and spoke and spoke ...

  • Fed's Williams ... more again: Still thinks it makes sense to raise rates in 2015
  • Fed's Williams: This will be the most gradual tightening in Fed history
  • More from Fed's Williams: September NFP at 147K still marks labor market progress
  • Fed's Williams: Repeats he sees Fed rate 'lift off' in 2015
  • Options .... big AUD/USD expiry at NY cut due today
  • For all the gamblers out there
  • JP Morgan's complete guide to world markets
  • UK data: BRC Shop Price Index for September: -1.9% y/y (previous was -1.4%)
  • Australia: AiG Construction PMI for September: 51.9 (prior 53.8)
  • Westpac hikes its Fonterra payout forecast
  • Trade ideas thread for Wednesday 7 October 2015
  • 3 quant trades for the week, long NZD, EUR and AUD
  • Forex technical analysis (VIDEO): EURUSD and GBPUSD break higher

Another day of waiting on central banks, with the Bank of Japan meeting concluding today.

Ahead of that moves were subdued, with most of the activity locally in AUD and NZD. Both drifted a little lower in the early going but soon began a rally that has continued on as I update. they are both near session highs as they carried on with overnight strength into today in Asia.

EUR, CHF and GBP all showed some strength too, cable a decent gain of 30+ points from its lows.

Chinese FX reserve data was out today, coming in more or less on expectations and indicating that the rapid outflow of capital in August was stemmed somewhat in August. This should be a stabiliser for global markets.

Yen was, of course, the focus as we waited for the BOJ. It tracked in a narrow range until about 15 minutes before the BOJ announcement, when the yen jumped, sending USD/JPY briefly under 119.90. From there it stabilized a little, but the following official (policy unchanged) announcement from the BOJ saw it hit lows again, this time under 119.80 (briefly) before stabilising.

Market attention now turns to the later October Bank of Japan meeting (thats right, there is another in about 3 weeks!) when the bank issues updates to its economic forecasts. market expectations are currently rising that the bank will downgrade forecast and ease further.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei -0.45%
  • HK +1.15%
  • ASX +0.37%
  • Shanghai ... China markets still closed for the Golden Week holidays ... will reopen tomorrow

Still to come:

  • Look ahead for Australian dollar traders - RBA speaker due later today
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda press conference at 0630GMT