Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 29 July 2015

FOMC coming up!

  • Commerzbank on the FOMC - the hurdle to the first hike is not very high
  • 5 things to watch from the FOMC on Wednesday

Bank research notes:

  • Goldman Sachs: Why the EUR/USD down move has stalled & why it will resume
  • Gold - Citi looking for a fall to $1,000
  • Citi technical analysis AUD/USD: Consolidate then fall under 0.7041 gradually

RBNZ Governor Wheeler speech sends the NZD much higher

  • RBNZ Governor Wheeler speech - ANZ comments
  • RBNZ Governor Wheeler: Further NZD depreciation is necessary

Oil

  • API crude oil inventories: draw of 1.9mln barrels

And ...

  • Trade ideas thread for Wednesday 29 July 2015
  • Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment for July: +1.9% m/m
  • IMF economist says signs Japan's inflation trend is positive
  • Japan Retail Trade data for June: -0.8 % m/m (-0.9% expected)

Early Asia.late US time brought us the American Petroleum Institute oil inventory data for the week, which showed a decent-sized draw. Oil had a very small pop on the 4.30pm (ET) release but then has settled sideways to very marginally higher for the session.

Next off we got a speech from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Stevens. The headlines indicated, yet again, that he saw room for NZ dollar depreciation, while the details of the speech sought to water down somewhat expectations for further interest rate cuts in NZ. These are likely still coming, but not at the pace as some of the more dovish commentary has been suggesting. Wheeler was quite forceful on this, saying that the large declines in interest rates currently predicted by "some local commentators" would only be consistent with the economy moving into recession.

The NZD response was a small dip, but then a very solid jump indeed, taking NZD/USD briefly above 0.6730 before it retraced a little and settled around 0.6710/20.

AUD/USD gained with the kiwi, though not nearly to the same extent (we've been noting to activity of AUD/NZD sellers ... and this has continued today). After a move to 0.7350 the AUD/USD has drifted back down earlier levels under 0.7330.

EUR as also a mover. Fresh news was absent, EUR/USD climbing 20-odd points to around 1.1080, while EUR/JPY got to around 136.85 before settling under 136.80.

USD/JPY lost ground from the Tokyo morning, down around 30 or so points (or just under) to be around 123.40 as I update.

Equity markets in China during the morning session opened a little better than the previous close but have closed for the lunch break a little lower. We await an exciting afternoon yet again.

Just for a giggle:

  • Broker chasing you for more margin? Here's what to do about it.