Forex news for Asia trading Monday 6 July 2015

Monday

  • Fitch says Japan fiscal discipline plan unlikely to lower debt burden
  • NZ Treasury publish their Monthly Economic Indicators- point to slower growth
  • Australia - ANZ job advertisements data for June: +1.3% m/m(prior 0.1%)
  • Australia - TD securities inflation data for June: +0.1% m/m (prior +0.3%)
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda: Will maintain QQE for as long as needed
  • Greece referendum final result
  • Bank responses to the Greek 'No' vote ... an important twist in a critical chapter
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda: Just held discussion on response to Greece this morning
  • Greece 'No' victory - "sharply raises the prospect of an eventual Greek exit from the euro-zone"
  • China Securities Journal: Economy likely to rebound as early as Q4
  • 10 consequences of the Greek 'No' vote
  • ForexLive referendum: Who was the biggest winner of the Greek vote? 3 choices!
  • It's .... the 'No' vote special trade ideas thread for Monday 6 July 2015!
  • EU's Dijsselbloem to Greek referendum voters - You're doing it wrong
  • US equity futures open a lot lower after 'No' vote wins in Greece
  • Dijsselbloem says Greek referendum result very regretable
  • 4 scenarios after the No vote from Deutsche Bank
  • EU's Tusk has called a Euro summit on Tuesday
  • Comments from Greek PM Tsipras: 'Mandate is to reach a viable solution'
  • ECB seen maintaining ELA for Greek banks when governing council talks on Monday
  • Greece referendum .... NO 61.51, Yes 38.49 ... 71.55% of votes counted
  • Early Monday opening forex price indications
  • EURUSD will open lower but expect some demand from option plays
  • Germany's Gabriel says Tsipras is leading Greece down a hopeless path
  • Euro being quoted lower in early Asian trading after Greek "No vote" brings Grexit to the fore
  • Senior German politicians tell Greece they're better off outside the Eurozone
  • Greek referendum: No vote has 61% majority with 44% of votes now counted
  • Greek referendum No vote in clear lead after first 10% of votes are counted
  • Varoufakis says there could be an agreement with creditors within 24 hours
  • Varoufakis to hold talks with Greek bankers later today
  • Sakellaridis says Greece wants to resume talks with creditors immediately
  • Merkel and Hollande to meet tomorrow to evaluate Greek referendum
  • Greek referendum vote closes. Now it's a wait for the results but polls suggest No voters win the day

Weekend

  • Bundesbank's Weidmann warns Merkel that Grexit would cause serious damage to German budget
  • EU's Schulz says Greece will have to introduce another currency if they vote No
  • French economic minister Macron says a compromise must be found on Greece based on reform and sustainable debt
  • Varoufakis calls the Greek referendum "a holy moment"
  • China suspends new IPOs, sets up market stabilization fund
  • Greek referendum cheatsheet from Credit Suisse
  • Schaeuble says it will be down to the Greek people whether or not to keep the euro
  • Austria's Schelling says Europe can easily manage Grexit
  • Varoufakis accuses Greek creditors of "terrorism"
  • Update to ... Greek bank official dismisses 'haircut' report as "baseless"
  • Bank of England to cut protected deposit cap to £75,000
  • FT: Greek banks considering bail-in "haircut" of at least 30% on deposits above €8,000
  • Top 4 Forex seasonal trades for July

The focus for the opening of the week was on the Greek referendum. Early results prior to markets opening were of the 'No' vote ahead and as more votes were counted that result solidified. The early market response was many gaps lower for the currencies, with yen and USD the gainers.

EUR/USD and EUR crosses were big losers; AUD, NZD, GBP and CHF all down against the USD also. Losses were not extended, though, and as more Asian centres came on line gaps began to be filled: NZD, AUD, GBP all doing so, but the CHF and especially the EUR not so.

EUR/USD has stop loss sellers below last week's low, but DNT option interest has so far held on the bid ahead of these.

The relative restraint in the market response (sure a gap lower for the EUR, but little follow through to the downside as I update) might weaken Greece's hand. But ... uncertainty is high as to how negotiations will progress. Merkel and Hollande will meet Monday, along with Draghi, Juncker and Tusk.

We await developments in Europe now, with meetings coming up on Monday and Tuesday and plenty of headlines to come. Keep your eyes on the news for how this is all going to evolve.

Oil gapped lower also while gold gained early only to give it all back.

The other focal point for the markets today was the response of Chinese stocks to news of heavy-handed intervention moves from the Chinese government over the weekend. Stock indices opened higher in response, but much of the gain has been given back, with the ChiNext down 4% on the session, while the broader Shanghai Composite is up just over 2% (as of writing).

Commodity markets in China also had a bad session, with both iron ore and rebar limit down in the early going.