Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 16 July 2015


  • Greek vote result ... "Yes" win
  • Greek PM Tsipras: I don't believe the measures will benefit the economy
  • Tsipras has finally turned up - says he is proud of the 'fight' over the past 5 months


  • China stock markets ripping today!
  • China - Authorities try to spin some good news from yesterday's stock plunge

New Zealand:

  • Barclays says RBNZ to cut in July, September and again in December
  • New Zealand - ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for July: -5.0% m/m (prior was -3.2%)
  • Another dairy payout forecast cut - this time from BNZ
  • New Zealand Q2 CPI: +0.4% q/q (+0.5% expected)
  • New Zealand - Business NZ Manufacturing PMI: 55.2 (prior 51.5)
  • New Zealand - ANZ expect a lowered dairy payout again, under $4
  • NZD/USD - Westpac lowers its forecast for Fonterra milk payout


  • Australia - Consumer inflation expectations: 3.4% (prior was 3.0%)
  • US's Rice: Iranian oil entering mkt could have effect of reducing oil prices (more)
  • Former BOJ dep gov. Nishimura - BOJ risks sparking upward inflation spiral
  • Trade ideas thread for Thursday 16 July 2015
  • More from Fed's Williams: September very plausible for rate liftoff
  • Former US Pres. George H.W. Bush has broken a bone in his neck - stable condition

The early part of the session was pretty much split between selling of the NZD and waiting on the Greek parliament vote.

The NZD saw further declines during the session, hitting a 6-year low below 0.6560 and barely managing to hold just under there. After the sell off overnight & the poor dairy auction (again) and then a lower than expected CPI result for Q2, NZD newsflow was dominated by a string of banks lowering dairy payout forecasts or revising their forecasts for RBNZ action, all of them adding in more and more expected rate cuts. The bullets above contain the calls from Barclays but Westpac, (say there is a risk of a 50bp cut in July or September, and they see the cash rate at 2% by year end), Citi (calling for 2 more cuts, but a not ruling out a third) and RBC (adding calls for a cut in September and December to their existing call for a July cut) have piled in as well.

The USD showed more gains today in Asia, tracking back to its overnight high against a soft yen, gaining towards overnight highs against the CHF, and picking up a few ticks against the GBP. AUD/USD is barely changed on the session.

EUR was a weakling. EUR/USD was reasonably stable after the result from the Greek parliament (a big majority voting 'Yes' to the new , harsh bailout terms), gaining a few pips ... before then losing ground as more Asian centres came online. It dipped below 1.0915 briefly and has since pulled back about a 20-odd point bounce. EUR/JPY followed a similar sort of pattern, up after the Greek vote but to new session lows following on and then a little bounce.

Oil steadied somewhat, higher on the session, while gold has lost a few dollars.

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