- China Q3 GDP 9.1%
- China September retail sales +17.7% YoY, better than expected
- Industrial output +13.8% YoY
- China home prices steady
- RBA minutes: Less concerned with inflation than in recent months
- Market still pricing in rate cut in November by RBA
- Commodity prices fall after China GDP, with copper lower by 1.5% at one stage
- Regional stocks fall by 1.75% on average
- Fed’s Evans can see need for further policy measures
Any volatility today was seen in the AUD/USD, which has been up-and-down on a few occasions inside a 1.0157/1.0221 range. The pair closed in NY around 1.0165 and the first move was up, as overnight shorts took profit after a big fall. The RBA minutes were greeted with silence, with the market still none the wiser re a November rate cut. If global issues moderate, then a rate cut is assured but that’s a big but. The market wasn’t sure how to react to the Chinese data, with GDP lower than expected but still strong, and retail sales showing a still buoyant domestic growth. Eventually AUD/USD fell alongside the copper price but has since recovered to session highs.
EUR/USD has taken a lead from the Aussie, up and down in a 30 pip range after earlier attempts to take out stops below 1.3720 failed. Ranges: 1.3729/88
USD/JPY was back to its old tricks again in a 13 pip range, 76.75/88.
Cable saw some healthy demand late in the session and traded 1.5736/1.5821. USD/CHF .8943/93.
