- Latest RBA minutes reiterate that rates will need to rise at some stage but no urgency
- Fitch: US to go on negative ratings watch if ceiling not raised by August 2nd
- BOJ implementing 1% rule on stockmarket: Media reports
- More central banks buying AUD bonds
- Regional stockmarkets +0.5% on average
- Gold flat at $1542/oz; Oil +0.35% at $93.40/bbl
Ther were 3 events which moved the FX market today in Asia. Firstly stop-losses were triggered in the EUR/USD above 1.4350 and 1.4365; then the less hawkish than usual RBA drove AUD/USD lower; finally comments from Fitch re the US debt ceiling saw risk trades and the USD fall.
EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.4315. Traders targeted light stops above technical resistance at 1.4340 and once they were triggered, heavier short covering by CTAs and momentum funds above 1.4350 and 1.4365 saw the pair rally to a session high at 1.4383. Some consolidation 1.4350/70 then followed before the pair fell back towards 1.4310 in sympathy with the AUD/USD sell-off post-RBA. The Fitch comments encouraged immediate USD-selling sending EUR/USD back towards 1.4350. It will close near its opening level, despite all the noise. Ranges: 1.4304/83
AUD/USD was also volatile. It rallied from an opening level near 1.0585 to 1.0615 as the EUR/USD jumped. The RBA minutes saw an immediate fall from 1.0600 to 1.0570 and then 1.0535. The Fitch comments and subsequent USD selling helped AUD/USD rally back towards 1.0570 but AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF ‘risk-off’ selling ensured that any rallies remained heavy. Ranges: 1.0528/1.0615
All of the other major pairs played second fiddle or chimed in when the crosses moved. Ranges: USD/JPY 80.06/34, EUR/JPY 114.64/115.35, Cable 1.6198/1.6253, EUR/GBP .8824/49, USD/CHF .8415/60, EUR/CHF 1.2065/1.2127