- Oil prices still rising with crude oil up almost 1% to $99/bbl and Brent trading at new multi-month highs near $113/bbl
- Tensions remain high in Middle East although there were no new developments
- Australian Q4 new CapEx +1.3% QoQ
- Volatility index trading at 9 month highs
- Gold $1412/oz; Nikkei, Kospi and All Ords all -0.6%, Shanghai +0.2%
Most of the movements today have been caused by flows and sentiment rather than any hard developments or news.
USD/CHF was the lead pair, breaking below the previous lows at .9300, triggering quite heavy stops below .9290 before stalling. Our theory is that the selling is emanating from petro-dollar accounts in Switzerland who are benefitting from the increased oil revenues but wish to diversify out of USD. Ranges: .9272/.9334
The AUD/USD has also moved higher today, benefitting initially from some corporate demand and then from stop-loss buying above 1.0060 and 1.0075. The slightly disappointing Q4 Capex numbers did have a brief impact but were soon forgotten: Ranges: 1.0007/82
USD/JPY has also seen some heavy turnover with large stops triggered below 82.25 but being soaked up, with Kampo included among the buyers. Ranges: USD/JPY 82.09/51
EUR/USD has taken something of a back seat but has nonetheless ground its way higher as the USD lost ground across the board. EUR/CHF selling was balanced out by EUR/GBP demand. Ranges: EUR/USD 1.3740/84, EUR/CHF 1.2778/1.2834, EUR/GBP .8471/86, EUR/JPY 113.05/51
Cable has traded 1.6205/54, not gaining as much as some of the other majors against the USD due to cross selling. Ranges: Cable 1.6205/54
