Forex news from the European trading session - 13 July 2021
Headlines:
- China premier Li Keqiang: Will not resort to flood-like stimulus
- US June NFIB small business optimism index 102.5 vs 99.5 expected
- Fed's Bullard: The time is right to pull back on stimulus measures
- IEA says oil market will tighten significantly if OPEC+ stalemate continues
- ECB's Lagarde: New strategy gives us ability to be flexible around 2% inflation
- France June final HICP +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prelim
- Germany June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
- Not much urgency to resolve OPEC+ deadlock it would seem
Markets:
- JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures flat
- US 10-year yields down 0.1 bps to 1.354%
- Gold up 0.1% to $1,808.20
- WTI up 0.4% to $74.38
- Bitcoin up 0.9% to $33,130
It was mostly a quiet session in Europe once again, with the market counting down to the US CPI data release later at 1230 GMT.
The dollar is standing its ground, holding a mild advance as EUR/USD slips from 1.1860 to 1.1835 while GBP/USD eased from 1.3880 to 1.3840 on the session.
Risk tones were tepid as equities are mixed/flattish while being little changed, and bond yields are also not really doing much to so far on the day.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were up a touch coming into the session but pared those mild gains as the former fell from 0.7490 to 0.7475 and the latter from 0.6990 to 0.6975.
All eyes are on the US CPI data release later where core inflation is estimated to climb to +4.0% y/y. As much as that screams out transitory amid supply chain disruptions and base effects, it still has the potential to spark some kneejerk reaction.
The devil will be in the details and it will be worth digging into that to have a better sense of what is driving the inflation surge and perhaps have a better gauge on how long that can persist as we get into 2H 2021.
