Forex news from the European morning session 19 Feb

News:

  • Russia says it would be difficult to agree on oil output freeze
  • Denmark's Rasmussen says EU at odds over welfare benefits
  • UK's Cameron: "We'll only do a deal if we get what Britain needs"
  • Japan's Abe says it's important to raise wages to stimulate spending
  • More from Abe: Not thinking of delaying sales tax increase again
  • Japan's Aso says rapid forex moves are undesirable
  • PBOC's Yi says monetary policy should be "stable, flexible"
  • PBOC's Zhou says structural issue is about pricing issue
  • PBOC's Zhou says he has no knowledge of RRR being raised
  • USDCAD rallies as oil price falls again
  • Pound on the back foot again as EU summit remains in focus
  • Pound hammered despite good UK data
  • Barriers ahoy in EURJPY & importer bids in USDJPY
  • Option expiries 10am NY cut today 19 Feb
  • Chinese equities close lower on the day but up on the week
  • Nikkei closes down -1.42 % at 15,967.17

Data:

  • January 2016 UK retail sales 2.3% vs 0.8% exp m/m
  • Germany PPI Jan mm -0.7% vs -0.3% exp
  • UK PSNBR Jan -£11.8bln vs -£13.9bln exp
  • Japan nationwide department store sales Jan yy -1.9% vs +0.1% prev

Like it/agree with it or not but focus remains firmly on the EU summit in Brussels and the jury is still well and truly out on whether the UK will get any deal of note.

The pound has been under pressure almost throughout the session apart from one brief respite after better UK retails sales and govt debt data.

We'd already seen GBPUSD back below 1.4300 and was recovering a little when the data sent the pair to 1.4343 with EURGBP back down to 0.7734. It was all short-lived though and we then saw pound sellers quick to pounce as news out of Brussels was anything but bullish.Cue further moves back to 1.4268 and 0.7775 with the pound on the back foot across the board.

Even against the also-weakening loonie as oil retreated from Asian highs on output uncertainties again with Brent down to $33.60 and WTI $30.11 from $34.46 and $30.73. USDCAD has made steady progress higher to 1.3789 from 1.3740.

Equities have been trying to make their mind up where to go but softer overall and this lending a little support to the euro helping EURUSD find support into 1.1080 after a dip from 1.1115. USDCHF found demand into 0.9900 but then the rally ran out of puff as EURUSD bounced from its own lows and EURCHF held steady around 1.1030.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD have both been contained by cross-play crossfire.

US and Canadian CPI on the menu at 13.30 GMT to add fuel to the fragility.