Forex news for North American trade on June 14, 2019:
- US May advance retail sales +0.5% vs +0.6% expected
- U Mich June prelim US consumer sentiment 97.9 vs 98.0 expected
- US May industrial production +0.4% vs +0.2% expected
- Canada May existing home sales +1.9% vs +3.6% prior
- Baker Hughes oil rigs for the current week 788 vs 785 estimate
- New York Fed GDP Nowcast 1.4% vs 1.0% a week ago
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 tracker jumps to 2.1% from 1.4%
- UBS economist put on leave after comments on food inflation in China
- Canada May existing home sales +1.9% vs +3.6% prior
Markets:
- Gold down $2 after hitting 14-month high of $1358
- WTI crude up 26-cents to $52.54
- S&P 500 up 2 points to 2893
- US 10-year yields flat at 2.09%
- USD leads, NZD lags
Strong US retail sales won out over a surprise fall in inflation expectations as the driver for the dollar and the broader market on Friday. The initial reaction to the strong data was modest, in part because it was revisions and core numbers that were the drivers of the strength. USD/JPY climbed 30 pips on the headlines but other dollar moves were slow to come.
However they came and persisted as a steady bid led to some impressive moves across the board. There was a hiccup on U Mich numbers that showed long-term inflation expectations at all-time lows. That would be a good excuse for the Fed to signal a cut, despite a strong consumer. After a blip the dollar continued higher and finish at the highs of the day/week on most fronts.
The USD gain left a few pairs in a precarious place. Cable is near the May low, along with NZD/USD and AUD/USD. It may take some time for those to break down as the market awaits Wednesday's FOMC but they will be spots to watch.
Maybe the most-interesting move on the day was in gold. It rose above the February high for a few hours and looked to be running higher as it hit $1341 but the strong retail sales numbers prompted a re-think on the Fed, dollar and safety and gold reversed to finish lower at $1341.
EUR/USD fell for a third day in a stumble to 1.1206. That drop wiped out last week's gain.
Have a great weekend!
