Forex new for trading on November 14, 2017.

In other markets, the snapshot is showing:

  • Spot gold rose $2.31 or +0.18% at $1280.69
  • US WTI crude oil futures fell $1.46 or -2.57% at $55.30
  • US rates are mostly lower. Two-year yield 1.687%, up 0.6 basis points. Five-year 2.058%, down 1.7 basis points. 10 year 2.317%, down 3.3 basis points. Thirty-year 2.830%, down 4.1 basis points
  • US stocks finished down on the day but well off lows. S&P index fell -0.23%. The NASDAQ fell -0.29%. Dow industrial average fell -0.13%.

The US released the Producer Price Index data for the month of October, and the data came in higher than expectations. The MoM data showed a rise of 0.4%. The estimate was 0.1%. The ex food and energy also rose by 0.4%. The estimate ws 0.2%. The YoY meaures were also higher with the headline coming in at 2.8% vs 2.4% estimate. That was the highest since February 2012 (when it was also 2.8%).

The data helped the dollar, right?

For about 5 minutes.

After that the dollar moved lower with the EURUSD the biggest mover. The USD lost -1.08% against the EUR which was benefited earlier in the day by not too bad GDP data (especially out of Germany (+0.8% vs +0.6% estimate). The dollar was only higher against the NZD today (gained 0.36%).

The fall back down in the USD, either helped (or followed) declines in yields in the US - especially toward the long end. Recalling from yesterday, the price moved to just above 2.40% in the 10 year. That was a key inflection point for the 10 year note - stay above and yields could move higher, but move below and resistance held. Well resistance held. Today, the yield move down to 2.370% and is closing near that level at 2.3735%. The 30 year yields were also lower by 4 basis points on the day. Lower yields tend to put pressure on the dollar. That is what happened.

No other data was out in the US or Canada. Fed's Bullard was his usual dovish self (rate are appropriate). Atlanta Fed's Bostic, a new voting member in 2018, favors a December tightening, and thinks it is appropriate to raise rates gradually over "the next couple years".

What about the key technical moves and thought for some of the majors today?

The EURUSD was the star today and technically, the pair had some pretty significant breaks on the way. Way near the lows, the pair moved above the August 2017 low at 1.1661. It moved above the October 6th low at 1.1668 and the neckline from the head and shoulders at 1.1673. Those breaks started the surge higher and it continued through the 100 day MA at 1.1733 (stay above now is more bullish). The pair peaked at 1.18045. The next target is at 1.1822 which is the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September high. Getting above that level will look toward 1.1836 and then 1.1860 area. The October high peaked at 1.1879.

The GBPUSD moved back above the 100 day MA at 1.31158 and then the 200 and 100 hour MA at 1.3121 and 1.1328 respectively. That was the invitation to buy and the price did not stall until reaching 1.3186. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 1.3188. On the run higher the pair waved at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3160. That MA stalled the rise last week on 4 separate occasions. Today, it did nothing. Was it afternoon trading? Did the market hit a liquidity void? We are ending the day below the MA line at 1.31534. So maybe it was a phony move. Watch that 1.3160 level in early Far East trading for bullish or bearish bias clues.

Here is the picture for the USDJPY. The 50% midpoint held the rally. The lower rates and dollar selling sent the lower and back toward the lows from yesterday. A lower trend line is trying to stall the fall, but the price is below the 100 hour MA at 113.54. Stay below is more bearish and make a run at last weeks lows...

Good fortune with your trading....