Forex news for US Trading on September 22, 2016

  • US stocks end the up and near highs
  • Larry Fink: The fourth quarter will be weaker than Q3
  • AUD/USD pulls back from the highs - orders
  • It's officially the first day of Fall. It's okay to talk politics now
  • Clock strikes midnight on the Fed dollar-trade
  • BOE's Forbes: Latest data points to upgrades in BOE forecasts
  • 24 hours after the FOMC decision: US dollar starts to find a foothold
  • Goldman Sachs sees 'considerable upside' in USD/JPY in the coming days
  • Mark Carney talks about climate change and structural reform
  • Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moving toward the MA levels
  • The knives are coming out for Merkel and her next move is critical for Europe
  • If you knew the US election result today would you buy or sell USD? - Deutsche Bank
  • Europe's stockies show their thanks to Aunty Janet
  • USDJPY keeps chipping away at resistance
  • Amazon moves above $800 per share...
  • Sept Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity +15 vs -7 expected
  • ECB's Knot: Financial and price stability are sufficiently aligned
  • Lots of balls in the air in the EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP combination
  • Fed's 'hawkish hold'; USD/JPY a buying opportunity with a tight stop at 99.00 - SocGen
  • September 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence flash -8.20 vs -8.20 exp
  • US August existing home sales 5.33m vs 5.45m expected
  • Trading now jumps from one frying pan to another
  • BOE may be overcounting the Brexit uncertainty effect says Forbes
  • ECB's Draghi: Banks play a vital role in financing SME's
  • Larry Fink: I am more worried than the market about the election
  • Initial jobless claims 252K vs 261K expected
  • August 2016 US Chicago Fed national activity index -0.55 vs 0.15 exp
  • The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

On the economic front during the NY session, US initial claims were lower than expectations at 252K vs 261K expected. Employment continues to look ok. The Chicago Fed national activity index was down -0.55 vs +0.15 expected. That is not so "ok". Later existing homes sales in the US were a bit weaker at 5.33M annualized vs 5.45M. With the last Fed meeting in the rear view mirror and traders and analysts looking at the road ahead and wondering what is will happen in November (likely nothing right before the election) or December (50/50 give or take), it is back to monitoring the data.

The stock market in Europe and the US liked that idea as the major indices advanced. In the US, the Nasdaq closed at the highest level ever (once again). Amazon traded and closed above $800 for the first time ever (as well). So what if the P/E is near 200. I guess that is down from higher levels when Amazon was spending all it made. So investors should not complain... I guess.

In the currency markets, the CHF and the NZD were the strongest and weakest respectively. What specifically makes the NZDCHF the big mover of the day, I do not know (why not one of the more normal pairs like EURCHF or USDCHF instead). However, we do know that the NZD was weak after the RBNZ was more dovish in their statement (they also talked down the currency). Technically, the pair fell below MAs including the 100 and 200 hour MAs at at 0.7145 and 0.7223 respectively, and that momentum continued through the day (the pair is trading at 0.7081).

Now that I spoke to that currency probably for the last time this year, how did the USD fair a day after the FOMC?

The greenback is ending the day mixed, but it did come off the lows in the NY session.

The EURUSD rallied strongly into the early part of the NY trading day, but when the price hit a target trend line at 1.1257 (see post here), the trend reversed back toward lower technical levels. One of which is the 100 day MA. That MA is currently at 1.1191. The afternoon low got as low as 1.11988 (with 8 pips of that key MA). If traders leaned against the trend line, will they lean against the 100 day MA in the new trading day? Why not. Look for support on a test.

The GBPUSD was also higher as NY traders entered and took the price higher in the early NY session. That move took the price above the high for the week at 1.3091. It also took the price above a trend line at 1.3097 (not far from that week high level). The price should go higher, right? It did but a cluster of resistance at the 1.3127-41 could not be threatened. When the price fell back below the aforementioned levels, the buyers turned to sellers and the price moved back toward the Tuesday high at 1.3062. That level will be eyed as support in the new trading day. PS EURGBP was an influence in the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs today. There was support at the 0.8575-82 and that area found buyers, until it did not. When it was broken, the EURUSD took the brunt of the selling (although the GBPUSD also declined).

The USDJPY traded to new session highs in the NY afternoon session but was not able to extend above the 101.00 level. Most of the NY session was spent going sideways and the fall from the high took the pair toward the middle of the NY trading range. Close support is at the 100.60-67 area.

The USDCAD was undermined by rising oil prices but the price fell to within 8 pips of the 100 day MA and the rest of the day saw the price move higher.

The NZDUSD was lower on the day but remains above the low for the week at 0.7278 (the low today reached 0.7292). That pair's price action has been like an elevator - up an down and up and down over the last 9 or so trading days.

Good fortune with your trading. Listen to all that Eamonn and Mike and Ryan and Adam tells you in the new trading day. They know their stuff.