Forex news for North American trade on June 30, 2021:
- Canada April GDP -0.3% m/m vs -0.8% expected
- US June ADP employment +692K vs +600K expected
- Kaplan: Sees a broadening of price pressures that are going into other sectors
- US weekly oil inventories -6718K vs -4686K
- A 500k bpd hike is the baseline for Thursday's OPEC+ meeting
- US pending home sales for May 2021 +8.0% versus -0.8% estimate
- Canada producer price is for May 2.7% versus 1.6% last month
Markets:
- Gold up $9 to $1770
- US 10-year yields down 0.3 bps to 1.44%
- S&P 500 up 10 points to 4297
- WTI crude oil up 53-cents to $73.51
- USD leads, JPY lags
The dollar bid was relentless into quarter end before finally giving some back very late in the day. As you might expect, some of that hit through the London fix but there was more into the London close and then later in the day.
The dollar bid helped USD/JPY to the best levels since March 2020 in a chart that's worth watching very closely.
EUR/USD was soft for the second day as it fell to retest the post-Fed low at 1.1847 with the pair finishing just below that. Cable didn't get quite as close to the low and bounced 30 pips late in the day.
The Canadian dollar was the best performer in the first half of the year but gave some back despite an impressive April GDP report and prelim May data. It looks like even harsh lockdowns didn't prevent growth in Q2. Flows were dominant and Canada is on holiday tomorrow so it will take some time to sort out, especially with OPEC coming up in the day ahead.
AUD/USD is down slightly on the day and below the 0.7500 level and the 200-dma. It was stuck to the floor for most of the day but didn't press further.
On the month, the S&P 500 gained 2.2%, the Nasdaq a whopping 5.5% and the Dow fell 0.1%. That's some significant divergence.
On the quarter it was +8.2% for the S&P 500, +9.5% for the Nasdaq and +4.6% for the Dow.
