Forex news for US trading on January 4, 2018.
- By the numbers: Non-farm payrolls preview for the Dec employment report
- Dow 25K is the milestone of the day.
- Macron warns of 'prisoners dilemma' in Brexit negotiations
- Gold reaches highest level since September 2017
- Crude oil settled at above $62. Resistance at $62.58.
- Fed's Bullard: US economy looks good
- USD/CAD breaks 1.25. Hits lowest since October 19
- Coinbase CEO shoots down rumor that Ripple will be added to supported assets
- The Australian dollar is sizzling but it's nearing resistance
- Fed's Bullard: Link between jobs and inflation may have disappeared
- Ripple....rips higher. Do the technical tools help define risk?
- The US economy continues to surprise to the upside
- Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD holds 200 day MA and 100 hour MA and runs higher
- SEC warns on cryptocurrencies, Israel bans crypto firms from stock exchange
- European stock indices end with impressive gains
- The Japanese Nikkei made a big break today. What it means for USD/JPY
- US DUE weekly oil inventories -7419K vs -4700K expected
- Bitcoin (on Coinbase and Bitstamp) hold support at MAs. Bulls remain in control.
- Forex technical analysis: JPY pairs run to the upside
- Trump team files 'cease and desist' to stop Monday's publication of tell-all book
- US final Markit services PMI 53.7 vs 52.5 expected
- Crypto perspective: Ripple Labs is now the world's 10th most-valuable company
- Be aware. USDCAD has 100 hour MA above/triple bottom below.
- US initial jobless claims 250K versus 241K estimate
- Canada November industrial product price 1.4% vs +1.0% expected
- ADP December US employment 250K vs 190K expected
- The EUR is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA trader enter for day
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar slides further on the day as equities surge forward
A snapshot of other markets as the NA session comes to an end:
- Spot gold of $9.93 or 0.76% at $1323.18. The high of $1326.11 was the highest level since September 2017
- WTI crude oil futures settled about $62 for the first time since midyear 2015. The current after hours price is trading at $61.90 up $.27 or 0.44%
- US yields are higher in the shorter end and unchanged in the longer end. Two-year 1.951%, up two basis points. Five year 2.264%, up two basis points. 10 year 2.45%, unchanged. 30 year 2.784%, unchanged
- The major US stock indices all closed at record levels with the Dow industrial average closing above 25,000 for the first time ever. The S&P index closed up 0.40% at 2723.99. The NASDAQ composite index closed up 12.383 points or 0.18% at 7077.91. The Dow industrial average closed up 152.45 points or 0.61% at 25,075.13.
The stories of the day included:
- The Dow closing about 25,000 for the first time ever. It was nearly a year ago that the Dow closed above 20,000 (January 17, 2017). The S&P index closed above 2700 for the first time yesterday. The NASDAQ composite index was up 7000 for the first time on Tuesday. So big number milestones are being surpassed day by day.
- The price of crude oil continued its run higher after inventory data showed a bigger than expected drawdown. The crude oil contract closed above $62 for the first times since 2015. The contract is approaching the high from 2015 at $62.58.
- The price of gold continued its run higher and traded up over 1% at the session highs. Expectations for higher inflation and a lower dollar, helped to push the precious metal higher
- ADP employment - a preview into the US employment report which will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT - beat expectations with a gain of 250K (vs 190K estimate). Adam has a preview of the report HERE. The initial jobless claims moved higher at 250K also (coincidentally). That is not as strong, but the numbers can be influenced by faulty seasonals and other measuring issues around major holidays (like Christmas and New Years).
- Canada PPI showed some signs of inflation. That led to the CAD moving higher and the breaking of the USDCAD below the 1.2500 level for the first time since October 20th.
- Ripple rose again today and traded above $3 to a high of $3.317. However, later in the day, the price fell back below the $3.00 level.
What are some of the technical details for the some of the major currency pairs:
- The EURUSD moved to within 4 pips of the 2017 high at 1.2092 and backed off. The 1.2000 level held yesterday. The 1.2042 is the swing low from 2012.
- The GBPUSD held the 100 hour MA in the Asia Pacific session and moved above the 1.3532 level (again) in the London/New York session. The 1.3532 was the highest high post-Brexit in 2016.
- The USDJPY was the only major currency that the USD gained against today. It was supported by stronger global stocks (and decent jobs data). The cross JPY pairs also soared. Technically, the pair is trading between the 100 hour MA below at 112.53 and the 200 hour MA above at 112.872. The price heads into the new trading day between the two MA levels at 112.71. It might be up to the US employment report tomorrow to determine the next major trend move. PS the 50% of the move down from the December high comes in at 112.84 (just below the 200 hour MA). Key area to get and stay above for bulls/buyers.
- As mentioned, the USDCAD fell back below the 1.2500 level for the first time since October. The pair is now trading at 1.2485. The pair is also below the 50% retracement of the move up from the September low at 1.24906. Canada will also report their employment change tomorrow with the expectations for a net change of employment of 2K (last month the gain was a whooping 79.5K), and unemployment rate of 6.0% (up from 5.9%).
Below is a look at the winners and losers. The NZD was the strongest currency today. The JPY was the weakest. The USD was down against all the majors with the exception of the JPY.
